股市波动与江西省城镇居民消费的非对称性影响研究

发布时间：2019-02-12 12:42

【摘要】：中国股市经过20多年的发展,已经在国民经济的发展中起到举足轻重的地位。股市与消费需求的相关性日益增强,股市的财富效应也越来越多的受到国内经济学家的关注。 21世纪以来的新一轮经济发展周期中,江西经济增长速度逐步攀升,居民收入和财富稳步增长,居民持有的股票、债券等金融资产和房地产资产不断增多。目前,摆脱了“股权分置”顽疾的中国资本市场已进入新的发展阶段,然而,随着国际金融危机的蔓延,中国股市近年来却出现了巨幅震荡,这客观上要求我们对财富效应进行重新审视。与此相关的一个宏观经济学的基本问题是,股市波动导致的居民收入结构、财富资产结构的变化是否带动了居民消费行为的变化?这种变化呈现出什么样的特征?进一步说,居民消费对于股价上涨和下跌是否具有相同的敏感性和反应程度(对称性)? 本文在此背景下从经典的消费函数理论出发,以江西城镇居民的第一手调查资料为基础,选取江西省城镇居民可支配收入、消费支出水平、消费者信心指数和股票指数的历年数据,通过平稳性检验、协整分析等实证分析方法,检验中国股市波动的财富效应对江西省城镇居民消费的影响。得出的结论是：股市波动对江西城镇居民消费存在微弱的财富效应,而且这种财富效应的影响的非对称性的,正的财富效应大于负的财富效应,即股市上涨对居民消费的影响要大于股市下跌对居民消费的影响。最后,根据前面章节的研究分析,结合江西省的实际情况做出相应的政策分析。
[Abstract]:After more than 20 years of development, Chinese stock market has played a pivotal role in the development of national economy. The correlation between stock market and consumer demand is increasing, and the wealth effect of stock market is more and more concerned by domestic economists. In the new cycle of economic development since the 21st century, Jiangxi's economic growth rate has gradually increased, the income and wealth of residents have steadily increased, and the financial and real estate assets held by residents such as stocks, bonds and other assets have been increasing. At present, the Chinese capital market, which has got rid of the stubborn disease of "split share structure", has entered a new stage of development. However, with the spread of the international financial crisis, the Chinese stock market has experienced huge shocks in recent years. This objectively requires us to re-examine the wealth effect. The basic question of macroeconomics related to this is whether the change of income structure, wealth and assets structure caused by the fluctuation of stock market will lead to the change of residents' consumption behavior. What are the characteristics of this change? Further, does consumer consumption have the same sensitivity and degree of response (symmetry) to the rise and fall of share prices? Under this background, based on the classical consumption function theory and the first-hand investigation data of the urban residents in Jiangxi Province, this paper selects the level of disposable income and consumption expenditure of the urban residents in Jiangxi Province. The data of consumer confidence index and stock index over the years test the influence of wealth effect of Chinese stock market fluctuation on the consumption of urban residents in Jiangxi province by means of stability test cointegration analysis and other empirical analysis methods. It is concluded that the stock market fluctuation has a weak wealth effect on the consumption of urban residents in Jiangxi Province, and the asymmetric, positive wealth effect is greater than the negative wealth effect. That is, the impact of rising stock market consumption is greater than the impact of the stock market decline on household consumption. Finally, according to the previous chapters of research and analysis, combined with the actual situation of Jiangxi Province to make a corresponding policy analysis.
【学位授予单位】：南昌大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.51;F127;F224

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