我国地方政府债务的风险分析及其预警系统研究

发布时间：2019-06-04 14:19

【摘要】：最近几年发生了金融危机,欧洲爆发了债务危机,同时我国的地方政府债务风险也逐渐显现,地方政府债务规模不断扩大,地方政府债务逾期时有发生,地方经济发展过分依赖地方政府债务,如不进行科学有效的防范与化解,将引发地方政府债务危机进而引发金融危机甚至社会危机。如何科学地监测地方债务风险,准确地评定地方政府债务风险状况,根据地方政府债务风险的状况,及时发出预警并采取相应防范与化解对策,这些已成为当前国内学者与政府相关部门研究的重要课题。本文首先对国内外文献进行了综述,包括支持和反对政府借债的见解,紧接着对地方政府债务研究的相关文献进行了介绍,包括我国学者对地方政府债务风险的研究；接着介绍了地方政府债务的涵义与分类,主要借鉴白海娜提出的分类标准,根据不确定性程度来看,政府债务分为直接债务和或有债务,从法律关系角度,政府债务分为显性债务和隐性债务,一共四类,并且它们可以形成四种组合分类；之后阐述了地方政府风险的涵义,介绍了我国当前地方政府债务风险的现状,认为我国当前地方政府债务规模庞大、偿还逾期风险大、管理缺失、监管不到位、违规频发等特点,接着详细讨论了我国地方政府债务的成因,成因有体制方面的,有法制、管理方面的,也有政绩考核体系以及地方经济发展方式方面的；接着介绍了地方政府债务风险预警系统的建立过程,介绍了建立预警系统的必要性,建立的原则以及建立预警系统要达到的目标,能够让地方政府系统全面地了解地方政府债务风险现状,并且对地方政府债务风险进行评估分析,在评估结果的基础上能够帮助地方政府制定出相应的政策,之后详细阐述了预警系统的构成指标体系情况,分为内部监控指标体系、外部监控指标体系、债务风险评定指标体系三个大类,作为构建地方政府债务风险的预警系统模型的指标体系是风险评定包含的指标。阐述了地方政府债务风险预警系统的建立过程之后,采用层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process)和模糊综合判断法结合“金融粒子理论”建立了地方政府债务风险预警系统,将地方政府债务风险等级分为5个评判等级,分别是很安全、安全、一定风险、中等风险和高度风险,根据地方政府债务综合风险系数来确定当前地方政府债务风险预警系统的预警级别。在统计了2007-2011年安徽省政府债务的情况后,运用地方政府债务风险预警系统对安徽省政府债务风险的情况进行了评定与预警实证研究,运用层次分析法(AHP法)借助yaahp软件得出了安徽省政府债务风险评估为“一定风险”的结论,之后运用“金融粒子理论”和“目标分解法”,结合风险映射法对安徽省政府债务风险进行了预警,预警级别为“轻警区”的结论；之后针对地方政府债务的诸多问题,本文从地方政府债务的借债、用债、还债三个方面入手,给出了防范和化解地方政府债务风险的政策建议,地方政府债务需要透明化、显性化,应该继续深化分税制体制改革深化市场经济体制,放开地方政府发行债券,应当建立健全地方政府债务管理制度,改进当前政绩考核标准,将地方政府债务管理纳入政绩考核标准,整理、整顿地方融资平台,引进民间资本进入地方融资平台,逐步有序消减地方政府存量债务；最后尝试给出了地方政府债务风险预警系统不同预警级别对应的政策建议,安全区建议积极监测,以防范为主,轻警区要警惕指标的变化,控制地方政府债务水平,以防范为主,控制为辅,重警区要严控地方政府债务规模的增长,积极采取应对措施偿还到期、逾期债务,努力降低地方政府债务风险导致的其他风险。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the financial crisis has taken place in Europe, and the debt crisis has burst out in Europe. At the same time, the debt risk of the local government of our country is gradually emerging, the debt of the local government is expanding, the debt of the local government is overdue, and the local economic development is excessively dependent on the local government's debt. If scientific and effective prevention and resolution are not carried out, the local government's debt crisis will trigger the financial crisis and even the social crisis. How to scientifically monitor the risk of local debt and to assess the state of the local government's debt risk accurately, and timely issue the early warning and take corresponding prevention and countermeasure according to the state of the local government's debt risk has become an important subject in the research of the current domestic scholars and the relevant government departments. This paper reviews the domestic and foreign literature, including the support and the opposition to the government's borrowing, and then introduces the relevant literature of the local government's debt research, including the research of the local government's debt risk by Chinese scholars. The paper then introduces the meaning and classification of local government's debt, which is based on the classification standard proposed by the white sea. According to the degree of uncertainty, the government's debt is divided into the direct debt and the contingent liability, from the angle of legal relation, the government debt is divided into the dominant debt and the recessive debt. The paper expounds the meaning of the local government's risk, and introduces the present situation of the current local government's debt risk. It is of the view that the current local government's debt is large, the overdue risk is large, the management is missing, and the supervision can't be found. The characteristics of the local government's debt are discussed in detail. The cause of the local government's debt is discussed in detail. The cause of the system is the system, the rule of law, the management, the system of performance assessment and the way of local economic development. Then, the paper introduces the establishment of the local government debt risk early warning system, introduces the necessity of the establishment of the early warning system, the establishment of the principle and the goal to set up the early warning system, and can make the local government system fully understand the local government's debt risk. The evaluation and analysis of the local government's debt risk, on the basis of the assessment results, can help the local government to develop the corresponding policies, and then detail the index system of the early warning system, which is divided into the internal monitoring index system and the external monitoring index body. The index system of the system and the risk assessment index system is the index system of the early-warning system model to construct the local government's debt risk. After the establishment of the local government debt risk early warning system, the local government debt risk early warning system is set up by the Analytic Hierarchy Process and the fuzzy comprehensive judgment method, and the local government's debt risk level is divided into 5 judgments and so on. The level is safety, safety, certain risk, medium risk and high risk, respectively, and the early warning level of the current local government debt risk early warning system is determined according to the local government debt comprehensive evaluation coefficient. Don't. After counting the debt of the provincial government in 2007-2011, use the local government debt risk early warning system to assess and early-warning the debt risk of the provincial government. In this paper, by means of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the paper draws the conclusion that the debt risk assessment of the provincial government is the "a certain risk", then uses the "financial particle theory" and the "target decomposition method", and the risk mapping method is used to pre-alert the debt risk of the provincial government, and the early-warning level is the "light warning area". After the conclusion of the local government's debt, this paper starts with the three aspects of the debt of the local government, the use of the debt and the repayment of the debt, and gives the policy suggestion to prevent and resolve the risk of the local government's debt, and the local government's debt needs to be transparent. To be flexible, we should continue to deepen the reform of the tax-sharing system, deepen the market economy system, and let go of the local government to issue bonds. We should establish and improve the local government's debt management system, improve the current performance assessment standard, and incorporate the local government debt management into the performance assessment standard. Organize and rectify the local finance platform, introduce the private capital into the local finance platform, gradually and orderly reduce the local government stock debt, and finally try to give the policy suggestions corresponding to the different early warning levels of the local government debt risk early warning system, and the safe area is recommended to actively monitor to prevent For the main purpose, the light warning area should be alert to the change of the index, to control the local government's debt level, to prevent the main control and to control the auxiliary. The heavy police area should strictly control the growth of the local government's debt scale, actively take the measures to repay the due and overdue debts, and try to reduce the risk of the local government's debt
【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F812.5

【参考文献】