中国国债政策的风险分析

发布时间：2019-06-05 00:10

【摘要】：各国经济发展的实践证明，国债政策作为一种有效的经济调节工具，，不仅是财政政策的一项重要组成部分，也是连接财政政策与货币政策的桥梁，它在筹集资金、调控经济的过程中的确发挥了不可替代的作用。而尚未结束的欧洲债务危机不断地提醒我们：国债政策只有在恰当地使用时，才有可能发挥其所具有的巨大潜能；否则，放任国债规模的增长，偿还债务的能力不断调低将导致该国政府的信用水平下降、整个国民经济动荡乃至给整个社会带来巨大的破坏。自1981年我国开始重新恢复国债，纵观这三十年的债务发行，其规模迅速增长。特别是1998年亚洲金融危机发生后，针对危机及国内需求不足的形势可能带来经济下滑，我国开始实行积极财政政策，随之而来的是国债发行的巨额增加。2008年，在美国次贷危机诱发的金融海啸的猛烈冲击下，中国经济面临及其严峻的形势。在此背景下，令我国不得不终止2005年实施的稳健财政政策，以“扩大内需保增长”为目标的积极财政政策于2008年在我国再次启动。经济复苏迹象越来越明显的同时，国债规模也随着迅速膨胀，国债资金使用效率较低，政府面临的国债偿还风险不容小视。论文考察了1991-2010年的数据资料，运用多元统计分析及R语言建模方法，对我国的国债政策风险进行主成分分析。首先，在对国债及国债政策风险相关理论和我国国债政策实践进行分析的基础上，依据我国的影响因素，把国债政策具体因素分为目标定位风险、国债投资规模、资金来源与运用风险等。其次，对我国实践量化总结，并运用主成分分析及R语言对我国国债政策风险作综合评价，同时基于国债政策的使用中投向与效率深入分析。最后，结合我国目前的宏观经济环境和经济政策，提出降低国债风险、提高国债投资长远效应的相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:The practice of economic development in various countries has proved that the national debt policy, as an effective economic adjustment tool, is not only an important part of fiscal policy, but also a bridge connecting fiscal policy and monetary policy. It is raising funds. In the process of regulating and controlling the economy, it has indeed played an irreplaceable role. And the unfinished European debt crisis continues to remind us that national debt policy can realize its great potential only when it is properly used; Otherwise, allowing the growth of the national debt and the ability to repay the debt will lead to the decline of the credit level of the government, and the instability of the whole national economy and even bring great damage to the whole society. Since 1981, China began to resume the national debt, throughout these 30 years of debt issuance, its scale has grown rapidly. Especially after the Asian financial crisis in 1998, in view of the crisis and the shortage of domestic demand, China began to implement an active fiscal policy, followed by a huge increase in the issuance of national debt in 2008. in view of the economic downturn, China began to implement an active fiscal policy. Under the fierce impact of the financial tsunami induced by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, China's economy is facing a severe situation. In this context, China has to put an end to the prudent fiscal policy implemented in 2005, and the active fiscal policy with the goal of "expanding domestic demand and ensuring growth" was launched again in China in 2008. The signs of economic recovery are becoming more and more obvious, at the same time, the scale of national debt is also expanding rapidly, the efficiency of the use of national debt funds is low, and the risk of national debt repayment faced by the government should not be underestimated. This paper investigates the data from 1991 to 2010, and uses multivariate statistical analysis and R language modeling method to analyze the policy risk of national debt in China. First of all, on the basis of analyzing the relevant theories of national debt and national debt policy risk and the practice of national debt policy in our country, according to the influencing factors of our country, the specific factors of national debt policy are divided into target positioning risk and national debt investment scale. Source of funds and risk of use, etc. Secondly, this paper makes a quantitative summary of the practice of our country, and makes a comprehensive evaluation of the risk of our national debt policy by using principal component analysis and R language, and analyzes the investment and efficiency of the national debt policy based on the use of the national debt policy. Finally, combined with the current macroeconomic environment and economic policy of our country, this paper puts forward some relevant policy suggestions to reduce the risk of national debt and improve the long-term effect of national debt investment.
【学位授予单位】：暨南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F812.5

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