财政疲劳、储备渠道与中国政府债务上限的测算

发布时间：2019-06-15 05:51

【摘要】：文章首次将居民储蓄存款引入财政反应函数,提出了政府财政调整的"储备渠道",并测算了现阶段我国政府债务的上限,最后基于前瞻性的情景模拟法分析了我国政府债务及其上限在2013-2030年的变动趋势。研究发现:(1)我国财政运行中确实存在"财政疲劳"现象以及对财政调整产生负向影响的"储备渠道";(2)我国政府债务率的上限为0.848,足够大的债务空间保证了当前政府债务的可持续性;(3)情景模拟分析表明,利率市场化的推进是我国政府债务可持续性的重要风险源,而居民储蓄存款的释放则能够抵御利率市场化的不利影响,但单纯依靠居民储蓄存款的释放不足以完全对冲正利差环境下过渡期的潜在风险,政府仍需要主动采取措施来提高承债能力。
[Abstract]:This paper introduces the household savings deposit into the financial response function for the first time, puts forward the "reserve channel" of the government financial adjustment, and calculates the upper limit of the government debt of our country at the present stage. Finally, based on the forward-looking situational simulation method, this paper analyzes the changing trend of the government debt and its upper limit in 2013 / 2030. It is found that: (1) there is indeed the phenomenon of "fiscal fatigue" in the financial operation of our country and the "reserve channel" which has a negative impact on the financial adjustment, (2) the upper limit of the government debt ratio of our country is 0.848, and the debt space is large enough to ensure the sustainability of the current government debt. (3) situational simulation analysis shows that the promotion of interest rate marketization is an important risk source for the sustainability of government debt in China, and the release of household savings deposits can resist the adverse effects of interest rate marketization. However, relying solely on the release of residents' savings deposits is not enough to completely hedge the potential risks of the transition period under the positive interest rate spread environment. The government still needs to take active measures to improve debt carrying capacity.
【作者单位】：中南财经政法大学金融学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71473271)
【分类号】：F812.5

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