黑龙江省D市地方债务风险管理研究

发布时间：2019-07-09 20:54

【摘要】：目前，地方债务存在举债融资不规范、监管不到位、行业偿债能力弱、测评机制以及防范机制缺失等问题，有一定的风险隐患。本文以D市为例研究三线城市地方债务的风险水平。首先，阐述当前D市地方债务状况，分析其风险，，包括偿还风险、债务风险影响政府威信、社会稳定、宏观经济运行乃至金融风险等，进而深入分析其形成的历史以及现实原因。接着，采用定量与定性相结合、实证与理论相结合的等研究方法，对“十二五”时期D市地方债务规模进行测算，包括“十一五”时期的存量债务的影响和“十二五”新增债务。前者利用EXCEL，PMT函数，计算债务本息和获得，后者由地方政府投资资金需求与地方政府投资能力的差额获得。通过情景假定对D市地方债务压力测试：不同经济增长视角下的债务风险、不同中央与地方支出责任分担格局下的债务风险、不同政府与市场公共投资边界下的债务风险，以达到测算D市地方债务风险的目的。最后，比较压力测试负债率、债务率、再融资率等风险指标的变化，得出结论：“十二五”时期D市地方债务风险虽然总体可控，但部分指标显示债务压力持续走高，形势不容乐观，有必要多管齐下、疏堵结合，通过保持适当经济发展增速、上级向下转移部分财力、市场参与公共投资领域的投融资等措施，以缓解地方政府债务压力。据此，提出相关的风险防范对策与建议。
[Abstract]:At present, there are some problems in local debt, such as irregular borrowing and financing, inadequate supervision, weak solvency of the industry, lack of evaluation mechanism and preventive mechanism, and so on, and there are some hidden dangers. This paper takes D city as an example to study the risk level of local debt in third-tier cities. First of all, this paper expounds the current situation of local debt in D city, analyzes its risk, including repayment risk, debt risk affecting government authority, social stability, macroeconomic operation and even financial risk, and then deeply analyzes the history and practical reasons of its formation. Then, using the combination of quantitative and qualitative, empirical and theoretical research methods, this paper calculates the scale of local debt in D city during the 12th five-year Plan period, including the impact of stock debt during the Eleventh five-year Plan period and the new debt in the 12th five-year Plan period. The former uses the EXCEL,PMT function to calculate the principal and interest of debt and the acquisition, while the latter is obtained by the difference between the investment capital demand of the local government and the investment capacity of the local government. Through the scenario assumption, the local debt stress test of D city is carried out: the debt risk under different economic growth perspectives, the debt risk under different central and local expenditure responsibility sharing patterns, and the debt risk under the boundary between different government and market public investment, in order to achieve the purpose of measuring the local debt risk in D city. Finally, by comparing the changes of risk indexes such as debt ratio, debt ratio and refinancing rate, it is concluded that although the local debt risk of City D during the 12th five-year Plan period is generally controllable, some indicators show that the debt pressure continues to rise, the situation is not optimistic, it is necessary to combine multi-pronged economic development, and the superiors transfer some of their financial resources downward by maintaining the appropriate growth rate of economic development. Market participation in public investment in the field of investment and financing and other measures to ease the pressure on local government debt. Based on this, the relevant risk prevention countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F812.5

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