2013-2030年我国高等教育规模发展研究——基于适龄人口和经济水平的分析

发布时间：2018-02-16 23:41

本文关键词： 高等教育规模毛入学率适龄人口经济水平　出处：《开放教育研究》2013年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：《面向21世纪教育振兴计划》拉开了我国高校扩招的序幕。在扩招背景下,我国高等教育规模发展迅速。但随之而来的是文凭贬值、学历泡沫、大学应届毕业生就业率走势低迷,高等教育规模发展与社会、经济发展不协调。在未来十几年,我国高等教育规模若要与社会、经济发展相协调,应保持怎样的发展速度?为了得出科学结论,我们基于未来适龄人口的变化和经济发展趋势,利用时间序列法外推高等教育规模纵向发展模型,将获得的结果与横向人口、经济因素相联系进行回归分析,以5年为一个预测单位,拟合出滚动回归模型。结果显示,2013-2030年高等教育规模年均增长率应控制在1.76%内,2027年左右我国高等教育迈入普及化阶段,到2030年高等教育毛入学率可达60%。
[Abstract]:In the background of enrollment expansion, the scale of higher education in our country has developed rapidly. However, it is followed by the devaluation of diplomas and the bubble of academic qualifications. The employment rate of college graduates is low, and the development of higher education scale is not in harmony with social and economic development. In the next ten years, if the scale of higher education in China wants to coordinate with social and economic development, what speed of development should be maintained? In order to draw a scientific conclusion, based on the changes of the population of appropriate age and the trend of economic development in the future, we extrapolate the longitudinal development model of the scale of higher education by using the time series method, which will result in the same result as the horizontal population. The regression analysis of economic factors is carried out, taking 5 years as a forecasting unit and fitting out a rolling regression model. The results show that the average annual growth rate of higher education scale in 2013-2030 should be controlled within 1.76%, and in 2027, China's higher education has entered the stage of popularization. By 2030, the gross enrolment rate of higher education will reach 60%.
【作者单位】：兰州大学教育学院;
【分类号】：G647

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