中国体育产业结构升级影响失业率的机制分析与经验研究

发布时间：2018-05-04 01:40

  本文选题：体育产业 + 非线性　； 参考：《中国海洋大学学报(社会科学版)》2017年04期

【摘要】：本文首先从理论上刻画了体育产业结构升级影响就业的理论传导机理,并进一步选取1980—2015年样本内数据,通过构建体育产业结构升级与失业率的非线性门槛模型,联合包含捕捉结构突变与平滑渐变点的非线性方法对序列进行平稳性检验,并利用完全修正最小二乘法和动态最小二乘法实证分析了体育产业结构升级对失业率的影响,结果表明,中国体育产业结构升级能够显著降低失业率,且我国体育产业结构升级对失业率的影响具有显著的非线性及区制转换特征,特别是依赖于经济发展的变动而产生非线性的影响,而且该区制转换的位置处于实际GDP增长率为5.8%和11.7%。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the theoretical transmission mechanism of sports industry structure upgrading affecting employment is described theoretically, and the data from 1980 to 2015 are selected to construct the nonlinear threshold model between the sports industry structure upgrading and the unemployment rate. The nonlinear method of capturing structural mutation and smoothing gradient points is used to test the smoothness of the sequence, and the influence of sports industry structure upgrading on the unemployment rate is analyzed by using the completely modified least square method and dynamic least square method. The results show that the upgrading of the sports industry structure in China can significantly reduce the unemployment rate, and the impact of the upgrading of the sports industry structure on the unemployment rate is significantly nonlinear and the characteristics of regional system transformation are significant. In particular, the nonlinear influence is caused by the change of economic development, and the position of system transition in this area is at the actual GDP growth rate of 5.8% and 11.7%.
【作者单位】： 商丘师范学院体育学院;中国海洋大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F249.2;G80-05
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本文编号：1841053