我国竞技体操后备人才系统动力学模型研究

发布时间：2018-05-25 23:02

本文选题：竞技体操 + 后备人才　；参考：《武汉体育学院》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国竞技体操项目采取政府主导的管理体制,竞技体操取得了几十年的辉煌。但近年来,我国竞技体操后备人才急剧萎缩,面临青黄不接、严重断层等窘境。2016年里约奥运会中国体操队取得零金牌零银牌的历史最差成绩,我国竞技体操从几十年的辉煌走向了低谷。我国经济基础已经从计划经济时代转向了市场经济,竞技体操的“举国体制”也将随之变化。在社会转型的大背景下探索我国竞技体操后备人才系统发展模式,是构建我国竞技体操运动员科学梯队的客观需求和提高我国竞技体操运动水平的内在需求,对促进我国竞技体操可持续发展具有重要的现实意义。本研究以我国竞技体操后备人才系统为研究对象,从系统整体发展的视角,以系统动力学为工具,综合运用定性分析、系统分析和系统动力学仿真等方法,在确定我国竞技体操后备人才系统要素的前提下,结合对竞技体操运动员个人发展障碍及培养内容的系统分析,构建了竞技体操后备人才系统模型,并通过现实数据对模型进行了仿真和验证,主要的研究内容和结果如下:(1)运用德尔菲法和验证性因子分析法确立了我国竞技体操后备人才系统指标体系,其中3项一级指标,10项二级指标,32项三级指标;采用平均值法确定各项指标的权重,揭示了整个指标体系的内在结构。(2)竞技体操运动员个人发展过程的系统动力学分析表明,竞技体操运动员个人发展过程中存在“兴趣减弱、伤病增加障碍”和“天赋较高产生骄傲自满障碍”两个方面“成长障碍”。(3)宏观层面揭示了竞技体操运动员培养内容,即包括竞技能力及潜力发展、科学文化素养发展、健全人格塑造发展三方面。(4)我国竞技体操后备人才系统动力学系统因果链分析表明,“体操世界冠军人数”与后备人才吸引之间的是正反馈的增长,即“体操世界冠军人数”从一定层面上能体现出我国竞技体操的竞技水平和后备人才培养的发展程度。(5)系统模型仿真结果显示,现有竞技体操后备人才系统的动力较为单一,始端生源问题是影响整个系统运行的核心要素。(6)系统动力学模型揭示了我国竞技体操后备人才旧有体制的利弊。多种体制并存,完善动力结构;发挥市场效用,整合利益资源;提高支持保障,泛化培养目标;加强文化建设,优化育人环境,是促进我国竞技体操后备人才系统可持续发展的主要举措。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, our country athletics gymnastics project adopts the government leading management system, the athletics gymnastics has obtained the glory for several decades. However, in recent years, China's reserve talent for competitive gymnastics has shrunk sharply, facing difficulties such as yellow and yellow, serious fault, etc. The 2016 Rio Olympics Chinese gymnastics team scored the worst record in the history of zero gold, zero silver, and so on. China's competitive gymnastics from decades of glory to the low point. The economic base of our country has changed from the planned economy era to the market economy, and the "national system" of competitive gymnastics will also change with it. Under the background of social transformation, it is necessary to explore the development mode of reserve talent system of Chinese competitive gymnastics, which is the objective demand of constructing the scientific echelon of Chinese gymnasts and the inherent demand of improving the level of Chinese competitive gymnastics. It is of great practical significance to promote the sustainable development of competitive gymnastics in China. This research takes our country athletics gymnastics reserve talent system as the research object, from the system overall development angle of view, takes the system dynamics as the tool, synthetically uses the qualitative analysis, the system analysis and the system dynamics simulation and so on method. On the premise of determining the elements of reserve talent system of competitive gymnastics in our country, combined with the systematic analysis of the obstacles of individual development and the contents of cultivation of gymnasts, the system model of reserve talents of competitive gymnastics is constructed. The main research contents and results are as follows: (1) using Delphi method and confirmatory factor analysis, the index system of reserve talent system of competitive gymnastics in China is established. Among them, 3 first-grade indexes include 10 second-class indexes and 32 third-grade indexes, and the weight of each index is determined by the mean value method, which reveals the internal structure of the whole index system and the system dynamics analysis of the individual development process of the gymnasts. In the process of individual development of competitive gymnasts, "interest weakens, injuries increase obstacle" and "growth obstacle" in two aspects: "growth obstacle" and "high talent cause complacency obstacle") reveal the training content of competitive gymnast. It includes the development of competitive ability and potential, the development of scientific and cultural accomplishment and the development of sound personality. There is a positive feedback growth between the number of world champions in gymnastics and the attraction of reserve talent. That is, "the number of world champions in gymnastics" can reflect the competitive level of China's competitive gymnastics and the level of development of reserve talent training from a certain level. The simulation results show that the current reserve talent system of competitive gymnastics has a single motive force. The model of system dynamics reveals the advantages and disadvantages of the old system of reserve talents of competitive gymnastics in China. A variety of systems exist side by side, perfect the dynamic structure, give play to market utility, integrate interest resources, improve support and guarantee, and generalize the training goal, strengthen cultural construction, optimize the environment for educating people, Is the promotion our country athletics gymnastics reserve talented person system sustainable development main measure.
【学位授予单位】：武汉体育学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：G832

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