中超前锋球员转会价格定价模型的构建

发布时间：2018-10-16 22:01

【摘要】：对球员转会价格的研究以文献资料法、专家访谈法为具体方法,以多指标综合评价法为理论基础,以2012-2015赛季275名中超联赛前锋球员为研究对象展开,采用相关分析和回归模型法探寻中超前锋球员转会价格的影响因素,并通过回归方程预测球员的转会费。研究分为两步:首先确定德国转会市场网站(Transfermarkt.de)评估中超前锋球员转会价格的准确性,为后续研究提供数据支持;其后选择球员自身特点、比赛表现、外界评价三维度的九个指标建立回归模型,探寻影响球员的转会价格的因素。在德国转会市场网站估计球员转会价值准确性研究中,对其2005-2015年间233个案例进行分类,其中中超联赛中国籍前锋84例,外国籍前锋149例。根据皮尔逊相关系数,研究结果显示为中超前锋球员的转会费与转会价格的相关系数R=0.747,P0.01,两者为1.427倍。查阅文献后选取X1年龄、X2优势脚的数量、X3进球数、X4射门数、X5成功传球数、X6争抢能力、X7教练评价、X8专家评价、X9公众评价九个指标来评估2012-2015赛季275名中超联赛前锋球员的转会价格,Yf为球员的转会价格。通过检验指标与转会价格的线性关系、指标间的共线性后,建立回归模型。结果表明:优势脚的数量、进球数、成功传球数、教练评价、专家评价、公众评价六个指标在回归模型中P0.05;回归方程式为:Yf=447076.530X2+60796.928X3+838.693X5-341.009X7+18313.074X8+0.127X9-1635616.568。本模型预测的中超联赛前锋球员转会价格与实际转会费相关性为0.726.得出以下结论:(1)Transfermarkt.de能较准确的评估中超联赛前锋球员的转会价格。它能预测中超联赛外国籍球员的转会费。但是不能预测中超联赛中国籍球员的转会费。可能因为国内前锋球员的转会费不具有规律性所致。(2)优势脚的数量、进球数、成功传球数、教练评价、专家评价、公众评价六个指标是影响转会价格的重要指标。中超前锋球员转会时,要重点考虑这六项指标对转会价格的影响。年龄对转会价格的影响需要进一步研究。(3)以优势脚的数量、进球数、成功传球数、教练评价、专家评价、公众评价为指标建立的回归模型能有效预测球员的转会费。
[Abstract]:The transfer price of players is studied by literature method, expert interview method, multi-index comprehensive evaluation method, and 275 players of Chinese Super League in 2012-2015 season. Correlation analysis and regression model are used to explore the factors influencing the transfer price of the players in the middle and super strikers, and the transfer fees of the players are predicted by the regression equation. The research is divided into two steps: first, to determine the accuracy of the German transfer Market website (Transfermarkt.de) to evaluate the transfer price of the super forward players, and to provide data support for the subsequent research; then to select the players' own characteristics and the performance of the game. External evaluation of the three-dimensional degree of nine indicators to establish a regression model to explore the factors affecting the transfer price of players. In a study on the accuracy of estimating the transfer value of players on the German transfer Market website, 233 cases were classified between 2005 and 2015, including 84 Chinese and 149 foreign vanguard in the Super League. According to Pearson correlation coefficient, the result shows that the transfer fee of the striker is 1.427 times higher than that of the transfer price. X1 age, X2 advantage foot number, X3 goal number, X4 goal number, X5 successful pass number, X6 contention ability, X7 coach evaluation, X8 expert evaluation, X9 public evaluation were selected after literature review to evaluate 275 medium and Super League forwards for the 2012-2015 season by selecting nine indicators of X1 age, X2 advantage foot number, X4 goal number, X5 successful pass number, X6 contention ability, X7 coach evaluation, X8 expert evaluation, X9 public evaluation The transfer price of the player, Yf is the transfer price of the player. The regression model is established by testing the linear relationship between the index and the transfer price and the collinearity between the indicators. The results show that the number of dominant feet, the number of goals, the number of successful passes, the evaluation of coaches, the evaluation of experts and the public evaluation are in the regression model P0.05.The regression equation is: Yf=447076.530X2 60796.928X3 838.693X5-341.009X7 18313.074X8 0.127X9-1635616.568. The correlation between the transfer price and the actual transfer fee is 0. 726. The conclusions are as follows: (1) Transfermarkt.de can accurately evaluate the transfer price of Chinese Super League forward players. It can predict the transfer fees of foreign players in the Chinese Super League. However, it is impossible to predict the transfer fees of Chinese players in the Chinese Super League. It may be due to the fact that the transfer fee of the domestic strikers is not regular. (2) the number of dominant feet, the number of goals, the number of successful passes, the evaluation of coaches, the evaluation of experts and the six indexes of public evaluation are the important indexes affecting the transfer price. Chinese Super forward players to transfer, should focus on the six indicators of the transfer price impact. The influence of age on transfer price needs to be further studied. (3) the regression model based on the number of dominant feet, the number of goals, the number of successful passes, the evaluation of coaches, the evaluation of experts and the public evaluation can effectively predict the transfer fees of players.
【学位授予单位】：北京体育大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：G843

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