我国房地产市场波动与政策调控效应的研究
本文关键词:我国房地产市场波动与政策调控效应的研究 出处:《浙江工商大学》2017年硕士论文 论文类型:学位论文
更多相关文章: 房地产市场 货币政策 财政政策 VECM模型
【摘要】:我国房地产市场向来有"政策市"之称。从2015年开始,去库存成为我国房地产市场政策调控的方向。经过近一年时间的去库存努力,房地产市场在一、二线城市呈现出良好的政策调控效果。国家统计局数据显示,2016年上半年,住宅销售增速达到30%,且70个大中城市库存总量环比减少0.3%,实现连续10个月同比下降。然而,受供需关系调整的影响,目前一、二线城市房地产市场迎来了新一轮爆发,房价和地价均大幅上涨,这增加了房地产住房市场上的价格泡沫及泡沫破灭风险。新颁布的货币、财政等调控政策将对现有房地产市场,尤其是对房价造成怎样的影响,再次成为我国房地产调控政策有效性研究的热点问题。在房地产市场中,调控政策呈现多样化的态势,考察多项政策的联合调控效应,尤其是从多项政策中甄选出较优的调控政策组合,不仅有利于我国政府对房地产市场的把控,更有利于房地产市场自身的健康发展。本文通过构建包括房地产交易价格及交易量、数量型及价格型货币政策、财政政策及经济增长水平的多个VAR和VECM模型,将我国房地产市场波动和政策调控内生化,考察不同调控政策在房地产市场上的有效性,并进行不同调控政策的比较。在经济增长新常态下,这一研究对房地产市场调控政策的选择具有一定借鉴意义。经过实证分析,本文得到以下结论:第一,货币供应量-利率政策的调控效应研究表明,无论是短期还是长期,房价均受到数量型和价格型货币政策的显著影响;在对数量型和价格型货币政策的单独考察中,房价波动在短期内受经济政策不确定性的影响并不显著。宽松货币政策冲击在发生约一个季度后,对房价上涨的推动作用将保持稳定,并且合适的利率政策可以实现短期房地产市场交易价格的有效调控。第二,如果单独考察财政政策的调控效应,房价涨幅受财政政策的显著影响,房产税政策冲击能够在短期内抑制房价涨幅的波动。第三,货币—财政联合政策调控的研究结果表明,宽松的货币政策会对房价涨幅的波动起到推波助澜作用;财政政策能够起到平抑房价的作用;经济增长在短期内对房价上涨的影响并不显著,然而从长期来看,受房产投机需求的影响,经济增长趋缓则会导致房价上涨。第四,在经济增长趋缓背景下,对于调控政策的选择,综合考虑政策调控效果、政策时滞、房价走势及涨幅波动程度,财政政策调控在一定程度上优于货币政策调控。在最优货币-财政联合政策的选择中,价格型货币政策与财政政策可能是较为合适的政策组合。
[Abstract]:China's real estate market has always been the policy of the city, "said. From the beginning of 2015, to become the stock policy of China's real estate market regulation direction. After nearly a year of efforts to inventory, the real estate market in a second tier city, showing a good policy effect. The national Bureau of statistics data show that the first half of 2016, residential sales growth rate reached 30%, and 70 large and medium-sized city inventory declined 0.3%, 10 consecutive months of year-on-year decline. However, affected by the relationship between supply and demand, adjustment of the current one, second tier city real estate market ushered in a new round of the outbreak, the land and housing prices rose sharply, the increase in price the real estate bubble and the bubble burst on the housing market risk. The new currency, the financial control policies of the existing real estate market, especially the impact on prices, once again become China's real estate regulation policy effectiveness The research hot topic. In the real estate market regulation policy, the trend of diversified, combined with a number of policy effects on, especially the selection of optimum control policies from a number of policies, not only conducive to the Chinese government on the real estate market to control, more conducive to the healthy development of the real estate market. This paper constructs including real estate transaction price and transaction volume, quantity and price based monetary policy, a number of VAR and VECM model of fiscal policy and the level of economic growth, China's real estate market fluctuations and policy regulation of endogenous, investigates the effectiveness of different control policies in the real estate market, and comparison of different control policies. In the new normal economic growth, has certain reference significance for the selection of regulation on the real estate market policy. Through empirical analysis, this paper obtained the following conclusions: first, the goods Study on the effects of money supply and interest rate policy that, whether short or long term, prices were significantly affected by the quantity and price based monetary policy; in a separate investigation of quantity and price based monetary policy, price fluctuations in the short-term impact of the economic policy uncertainty is not significant. The loose monetary policy the impact occurred about a quarter, housing prices will remain stable in the role, and the appropriate interest rate policy can effectively control the short-term real estate market transaction price. Second, if only study the regulatory effects of fiscal policy, prices rose significantly by the impact of fiscal policy, the real estate tax policy impact to curb rising prices in the short term fluctuations. Third, research on monetary policy, fiscal union. The results show that the loose monetary policy on housing prices rose to push wave wave The effect; fiscal policy can play a role in stabilizing prices; economic growth in the short term impact on housing prices is not significant, but in the long term, affected by the real estate speculation demand, slowing economic growth will lead to higher prices. In fourth, economic growth slowed in the background, policy choice with considering the effect of policies, policies, prices and increase the volatility of financial policy, to a certain extent better than monetary policy. In the fiscal policy with the optimal monetary choice, price based monetary policy and fiscal policy may be more appropriate policy mix.
【学位授予单位】:浙江工商大学
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2017
【分类号】:F299.23
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