渤海海峡跨海通道建设对环渤海地区经济重心的影响——基于物流GDP增加值测算

发布时间：2017-12-31 05:25

本文关键词：渤海海峡跨海通道建设对环渤海地区经济重心的影响——基于物流GDP增加值测算　出处：《地理研究》2017年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：将渤海海峡跨海通道与环渤海地区经济重心相关联,引入时间序列预测方法、重心理论模型及修正引力模型,收集中国经行渤海通道的省际物流交流量数据以及环渤海地区89座城市1990-2014年的GDP数据并加以预测,根据物流交流总量、时间节省成本测算89座城市的物流GDP增加值作为渤海通道建设的直接经济效益,在此基础上对未来环渤海地区的经济重心变化进行分析。结论如下:(1)渤海通道建成前,环渤海地区经济重心的运动方向总体为"西南→西北",且随时间变化,移动距离、变化速率均在减缓,但区域失衡持续存在。(2)渤海通道建成后,结合对有无渤海通道影响的假定分析发现,环渤海地区内部的经济平衡性不断改善,经济重心延续向西北方向移动的趋势但出现小幅滞后,表明仅考虑物流经济,通道建设暂时不会对环渤海地区经济重心变动方向产生根本影响。进一步测度城市间物流经济联系强度发现,受距离衰减规律作用,环渤海地区经济重心向几何重心的移动速率有所减缓。(3)影响经济重心变化逐渐放缓的主要因素为城市经济总量和物流运输的时空压缩效益。(4)引入"力的合成与分解"理论分析重心平移变化机理及演进过程,预测指出未来环渤海地区经济重心向东北方向移动的趋势要受到渤海通道综合空间经济效应的影响,其对东北地区经济复苏与振兴将产生一定的积极作用。
[Abstract]:The Bohai Strait Sea Road and ring economic center Bohai Area Association introduced the time series forecast method, theory of gravity model and modified gravity model, Chinese collected by GDP data exchange data for Bohai provincial logistics channel and ring 89 in Bohai city for 1990-2014 years and to forecast, according to the total logistics exchange, save time cost estimates for the 89 city logistics value added GDP as a direct economic benefit of Bohai channel construction, on the basis of the future economic gravity changes in Bohai area were analyzed. The conclusions are as follows: (1) the Bohai Sea before the completion of the general direction of movement, "southwest, northwest" economic center in Bohai area, and with the time change, moving distance, rate of change were slowing, but the regional imbalances persist. (2) Bohai channel after the completion of a Bohai channel effect assumption analysis found that the Bohai Haiti area economic balance continues to improve, the economic center continues to move northwest trend but a slight lag, that only considering the logistics economy, channel construction will not have a fundamental impact on the direction of the economic center ring Bohai area. To measure the inter city logistics strength of economic ties, by the distance attenuation effect, ring the economic center in Bohai area to the geometric center of moving rate slowed down. (3) the main factors affecting economic center of gravity changes gradually slowed down the compression efficiency for the city economy and space logistics transportation. (4) the focus shift mechanism and analysis of evolution process and the decomposition theory of "force, leading into the prediction that the next economic center ring Bohai area moving to the Northeast trend to be affected by the Bohai channel comprehensive spatial economic effects, the economic recovery and revitalization of Northeast China There will be a positive effect.

【作者单位】：鲁东大学资源与环境工程学院;鲁东大学环渤海发展研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(41171096,41501129) 教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(15YJA790053)
【分类号】：F127;F259.27
【正文快照】： 1引言进入21世纪,随着中国经济社会的高速发展,交通基础设施进入蓬勃建设时期,由此所引发的“时空压缩”成为交通地理研究的热点。为了获得区际“时空压缩”效益,整合区域空间关系[1],交通基础设施建设出现两大特征:(1)交通运输工具“高速化”,以铁路提速及规划开通高铁、修建

【相似文献】