调控政策下绿景控股现金流风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-01-01 01:20

本文关键词：调控政策下绿景控股现金流风险管理研究　出处：《石河子大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：房地产业是资金密集型行业,项目开发需要大量资金投入,资金的投入与回收对项目开发意义重大。企业的现金流是企业正常经营的基础,现金流风险的控制影响着企业的发展。在中国转型经济的特殊背景下,房地产行业的政策敏感性,使得房地产企业必须关心房地产调控政策,及时作出应对决策。在经济环境较好时,一般采取抑制型的调控政策;经济环境过冷时,则采取激励型的调控政策。因此,研究房地产企业发展过程中在调控政策下如何管理现金流和控制现金流风险具有重要意义。本文尝试从调控政策对房地产业影响的角度,探讨企业如何在这些政策背景下加强现金流产生的风险隐患并对其进行有效管理。本文首先从行业角度出发,分析了房地产开发的情况,然后对调控政策进行梳理并根据特点分为两个类别,然后对两种政策下的房地产行业现金流的总体情况、现金流量结构、偿债能力进行对比分析,接着对房地产业的现金流风险基本特征进行分析,运用了主成分分析法建立对风险的预测模型。最后选取已经上市24年的中小房企,却有过六次更名历史,并经历多次转型失败的绿景控股公司进行案例研究,并根据前文对行业两种政策的分类,运用于绿景控股的现金流风险分析中,文末则根据分析结果对现金流产生的隐患提出了四个建议。本文通过对房地产行业在两种政策下的现金流管理,结合绿景控股案例进行分析,得出以下几点结论:(1)调控政策的出台并不会立即影响企业的现金流状况;(2)不管是在激励型政策的影响下还是抑制型政策影响下,房地产企业中筹资活动产生的现金正流入在总现金流入净额中所占比例最大,经营活动产生的流量净额受政策影响较大,投资活动产生的现金流净额一般产生负的效应。绿景控股现金流现状可以得出与行业特征有所不同:(1)在宽松的调控政策下,绿景控股现金流状况并未得到明显改善,而在抑制型政策影响下,对企业经营状况是雪上加霜,现金流风险更大;(2)不管是在政策激励阶段还是抑制阶段,总现金流入净额主要依靠经营活动产生的现金流净额,而随着行业集中度的提升,绿景控股的竞争不足,如果此时又处于紧缩的政策环境下,经营现金流净额就会出现较大的影响。针对上述问题,本文给出如下建议:(1)增加筹资渠道;(2)控制现金周转期;(3)确定现金的最佳持有额度;(4)继续寻找新的投资项目。
[Abstract]:Real estate industry is a capital-intensive industry, project development needs a lot of capital investment, the investment and recovery of funds is of great significance to project development. The cash flow of enterprises is the basis of the normal operation of enterprises. Cash flow risk control affects the development of enterprises. Under the special background of China's transition economy, the policy sensitivity of the real estate industry makes real estate enterprises must care about the real estate regulation policy. Timely decision making. When the economic environment is better, generally adopt the control policy of restraining type; When the economic environment is too cold, the policy of stimulating regulation and control should be adopted. It is important to study how to manage cash flow and control cash flow risk in the process of real estate enterprise development. This paper discusses how to strengthen the risk hidden danger of cash flow and manage it effectively under the background of these policies. Firstly, this paper analyzes the situation of real estate development from the angle of industry. Then the regulation and control policies are sorted out and divided into two categories according to the characteristics, and then the overall situation of cash flow, cash flow structure and solvency of the real estate industry under the two policies are compared and analyzed. Then the paper analyzes the basic characteristics of cash flow risk of real estate industry, and establishes the risk prediction model by principal component analysis. Finally, it selects the small and medium-sized housing enterprises which have been listed for 24 years, but has six renaming history. And after many failures of the transformation of the Green King holding company case study, and according to the previous classification of the two policies of the industry, used in the cash flow risk analysis of Green King holding. Finally, according to the results of the analysis of the hidden dangers of cash flow put forward four suggestions. Through the real estate industry under the two policies of cash flow management, combined with the green landscape holding case analysis. Draw the following conclusions: 1) the introduction of regulatory policies will not immediately affect the cash flow of enterprises; (2) under the influence of incentive policy or restraint policy, the cash inflow from financing activities in real estate enterprises is the largest in the total net cash inflow. Net flows from operating activities are strongly affected by policies. The net cash flow generated by investment activities generally has a negative effect. The cash flow situation of Greenview Holdings can be obtained to be different from the characteristics of the industry.) under the loose regulation and control policy. The cash flow status of Green King Holdings has not been significantly improved, but under the influence of restraining policies, the operating conditions of enterprises are aggravated, and the cash flow risk is greater; Whether in the policy incentive stage or the suppression stage, the net cash inflow mainly depends on the net cash flow generated by the business activities, and with the increase of industry concentration, the competition of Green King Holdings is insufficient. If we are in a tight policy environment at this time, the net operating cash flow will have a greater impact. In view of the above problems, this paper gives the following suggestions: 1) increase the financing channels; (2) controlling cash turnover; (III) determining the best level of cash holdings; Continue to look for new investment projects.
【学位授予单位】：石河子大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.233.42

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