京津冀地区住宅价格影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-01-04 02:12

本文关键词：京津冀地区住宅价格影响因素研究　出处：《吉林大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2016年的中央经济工作会议,将“促进房地产市场平稳健康发展”纳入到继续深化供给侧结构性改革的四项任务之一,并明确提出“房子是用来住的、不是用来炒的”的定位,标志着我国住宅市场有望真正进入理性发展时代。京津冀地区住宅市场整体发展不平稳,住宅价格整体上涨且幅度差异较大,京津冀地区各市的住宅购买力差异明显,京津冀地区住宅市场的供需不均衡。各市住宅市场的投资额逐年增加,但河北省各市住宅市场的投资水平明显低于北京市和天津市。基于以上背景,本文首先从住宅价格及住宅市场的供需角度阐述京津冀地区住宅市场差异,分析京津冀地区住宅市场的运行特征。然后分析京津冀地区住宅价格的影响因素,并对京津冀地区各市的发展现状进行分析。进而选取GDP、外商投资额、第二产业比重、城镇化率等八个指标,建立面板数据模型,对京津冀地区住宅价格的影响因素进行实证分析,得出以下结论:经济发展水平对京津冀各市的住宅价格影响程度最大,平均系数为0.8213,体现了经济发展水平对住宅市场的正向促进作用;外商投资对各市的影响程度差异明显,北京、唐山的外商投资系数较大,天津、石家庄等市的系数偏小,但系数均为正,表明外商投资对住宅价格具有正向作用;各市第二产业比重、房价收入比的影响系数均为负,两者对住宅价格有负向作用;城镇化率对住宅价格的影响系数平均值为0.0699,表明城镇化对住宅价格具有正向的促进作用;土地价格的平均系数为0.0521,表明土地购置成本与住宅价格存在正向关联;房地产政策对河北省各地级市的住宅价格起到了推动作用,相反北京市房地产政策对其住宅价格起到了一定的抑制作用。最后,结合实证分析的结果,为促进京津冀地区住宅市场健康发展提出几点合理的政策建议:推动京津冀地区产业协调发展;促进京津冀地区交通一体化进程;促进京津冀地区城镇化协调发展;优化京津冀地区土地供需结构;京津冀地区要加强差别化对外开放水平。
[Abstract]:In 2016, the Central Economic work Conference brought "promoting the steady and healthy development of the real estate market" into the four items Ren Wuzhi, which continued to deepen the structural reform on the supply side, and made it clear that "the house is used for living." The positioning of "not for speculation" indicates that the housing market in China is expected to truly enter the era of rational development. The overall development of the housing market in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is not stable, and the price of housing as a whole rises and varies greatly. The purchasing power of housing in each city of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area is obviously different, and the demand and supply of housing market in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area are not balanced. The investment of housing market in each city increases year by year. However, the investment level of housing market in Hebei Province is obviously lower than that in Beijing and Tianjin. Based on the above background, this paper first expounds the difference of housing market in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from the point of view of housing price and housing market supply and demand. This paper analyzes the operating characteristics of housing market in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area, and then analyzes the influencing factors of housing price in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area, and analyzes the present situation of development of each city in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area, and then selects GDPand foreign investment. Second industry proportion, urbanization rate and other eight indicators, the establishment of panel data model, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region housing price impact factors for empirical analysis. The following conclusions are drawn: the level of economic development has the greatest influence on the housing prices in the cities of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, with an average coefficient of 0.8213, which reflects the positive promoting effect of the level of economic development on the housing market; The influence degree of foreign investment on each city is obvious difference, Beijing, Tangshan foreign investment coefficient is bigger, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang city coefficient is small, but coefficient is all positive. It shows that foreign investment has positive effect on housing price; The ratio of secondary industry and the ratio of house price to income are all negative, both of them have negative effect on housing price. The average influence coefficient of urbanization rate on housing price is 0.0699, which indicates that urbanization has a positive effect on housing price. The average coefficient of land price is 0.0521, which indicates that there is a positive correlation between land purchase cost and housing price. The real estate policy has promoted the housing prices of the prefecture-level cities in Hebei Province, on the contrary, the Beijing real estate policy has played a certain role in restraining the housing prices. Finally, combined with the results of empirical analysis. In order to promote the healthy development of the housing market in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, several reasonable policy suggestions are put forward: promoting the coordinated development of the industry in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region; Promoting the process of traffic integration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region; Promoting the coordinated development of urbanization in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region; Optimizing the structure of land supply and demand in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region; Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei should strengthen the level of differential opening to the outside world.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23

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