延迟退休年龄对青年就业的影响——基于挤出和产出效应的比较研究

发布时间：2018-01-05 13:10

本文关键词：延迟退休年龄对青年就业的影响——基于挤出和产出效应的比较研究　出处：《保险研究》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文首先对延迟退休对青年就业的挤出效应和产出效应进行理论分析,再通过实证分析验证了这两类效应的大小和作用机制。研究结果表明,挤出和产出效应同时存在,挤出效应更多是短期效应,长期来看产出效应可以通过提高适龄劳动人口、降低养老金缴费率和抚养比等渠道弥补挤出效应对青年人就业率的冲击。根据上述结果对退休方案的节奏和时机进行了测算,发现每年延迟半岁的退休政策可以最大化地降低短期内挤出效应对青年人就业的不利影响,同时产出和挤出效应的时间轴效应表明最优延迟退休政策的推出时机是在2020年之前。本文的研究结果为我国延迟退休政策的实施及节奏控制提供了参考。
[Abstract]:In this paper, we first analyze the crowding-out effect and output effect of delayed retirement on youth employment, and then verify the magnitude and mechanism of these two effects by empirical analysis. The results show that. Extrusion and output effect exist at the same time, extrusion effect is more short-term effect. In the long run, the output effect can be improved by improving the working-age population. According to the above results, the rhythm and timing of retirement schemes are measured according to the impact of crowding-out effect on the employment rate of young people by reducing pension contribution rate and dependency ratio. It was found that the annual delay of half a year in retirement policies can maximize the impact of short-term crowding-out effects on the employment of young people. At the same time, the time axis effect of output and crowding-out effect indicates that the optimal delayed retirement policy was introduced before 2020. The results of this paper provide a reference for the implementation and rhythm control of the delayed retirement policy in China.
【作者单位】：西南财经大学金融学院;西南财经大学保险学院;
【基金】：西南财经大学双一流建设“老龄金融学科特色发展”项目的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：F249.2
【正文快照】： 一、引言人口老龄化造成的社会负担加重、人口红利消失、养老保险基金缺口变大是我国推行延迟退休不得不考虑的时代背景。从世界范围来看,大多数发达国家在发展过程中也面临过类似的问题,而政府解决这些问题主要方法之一就是延迟退休,通过增加劳动力供给缓解人口红利消失带来

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