基于灰色模糊评价养老地产开发决策阶段的风险分析

发布时间：2018-01-09 08:25

本文关键词：基于灰色模糊评价养老地产开发决策阶段的风险分析　出处：《哈尔滨商业大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国老年人口增长快,高龄老人占比大,老年人家庭空巢化、独居化加速,未富先老的国情使得养老地产这一新兴产业应运而生。养老地产具有良好的发展前景,但与普通的房地产相比,养老地产错综复杂,需要投入更多的资金及人员,这就导致投资养老地产往往比普通房地产的风险大,养老地产开发决策阶段在整个过程中占有重要的地位,因此只有把控好养老地产开发决策阶段的投资风险才能降低开发成本、减少不必要的损失,才能在养老市场这块新领域上找到立足之地。在我国老龄化日益严重的国情下,本文介绍了养老地产、风险分析及模糊综合评价模型所涉及的理论,结合房地产开发决策阶段的风险及养老地产开发决策阶段的特殊的风险因素,构建了灰色模糊综合评价模型。通过运用AHP层次分析法在众多因素中得出影响因素的重要程度,有助于养老地产在开发决策阶段能更好的把控各个风险因素,分析解决主要敏感因素,并且结合灰色模糊评价模型确定了某个养老地产项目开发决策阶段的风险大小,开发商可以根据其结果来综合衡量待开发项目的风险大小,对其起到一定的借鉴作用,文章最后简述了几个常见的养老地产开发决策阶段风险规避的方法。通过对养老地产开发决策阶段的风险分析,'降低风险度,促进养老地产的良好发展,不仅能够给开发企业带来巨大的利润,而且对解决老年人的居住问题、促进社会和谐发展具有重要意义。
[Abstract]:China's elderly population is growing rapidly, the proportion of the elderly is large, the elderly family empty nests, the acceleration of solitude. The old before the rich makes the endowment property this new industry emerged. Pension real estate has a good development prospects, but compared with ordinary real estate, pension real estate complex. Need to invest more funds and personnel, which leads to the investment of old-age real estate is often greater than the risk of ordinary real estate, pension real estate development decision-making stage in the entire process plays an important role. Therefore, only by controlling the investment risk in the decision-making stage of the development of pension real estate can the development cost be reduced and unnecessary losses be reduced. In order to find a foothold in the new field of the old-age market, this paper introduces the theory of old-age real estate, risk analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. Combined with the real estate development decision-making stage of the risk and pension real estate development decision-making stage of the special risk factors. The grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is constructed and the importance of influencing factors is obtained by using AHP analytic hierarchy process (AHP). In order to help the pension estate in the development decision-making stage can better control the various risk factors, analysis and solution of the main sensitive factors. And combined with the grey fuzzy evaluation model to determine the size of a pension real estate project development decision-making stage of the risk, developers can be based on its results to comprehensively measure the risk of the project to be developed. Finally, this paper briefly introduces several common methods of risk aversion in the decision stage of the development of the endowment real estate, and reduces the risk degree by analyzing the risk of the stage of the development of the endowment real estate. To promote the good development of old-age real estate not only can bring huge profits to the development enterprises but also plays an important role in solving the living problems of the elderly and promoting the harmonious development of the society.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨商业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23;D669.6

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