吉林省城镇化与产业结构演进的互动关系研究

发布时间：2018-01-12 22:34

本文关键词：吉林省城镇化与产业结构演进的互动关系研究　出处：《吉林财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

更多相关文章： 城镇化 产业结构 互动关系 吉林省

【摘要】：从世界城镇化进程的普遍规律来看,不同发展阶段的城镇化进程对应着不同的经济活动结构。一般来讲,工业化会引起产业结构的转变,产业结构转变又进一步带动就业结构转变,大量农村剩余劳动力转移至城镇,加入非农产业的就业,进而提高城镇化率。在产业结构动态演进的过程中,城镇化的发展对三次产业的调整、优化、提升都有着重要的带动作用;而产业结构的合理调整同样需要以城市为载体,以城镇化为依托,并对城镇化的发展发挥着积极促进作用。近年来,吉林省以新型城镇化内涵为指导,深入贯彻科学发展观,本着“以人为本”为核心,积极推进全省产业结构战略性优化调整,努力实现经济发展方式转变,并为经济和社会的可持续发展提供基础。但是与全国整体水平特别是东部发达地区相比,城镇化发展和产业结构优化调整对于吉林省这样一个多山、多林、多沙漠地区,城镇的腹地遥远,传统的农业和重化工业为主导的省份来说,无疑需要付出更多的努力。现阶段,吉林省城镇化发展的水平如何;产业结构优化调整的进度如何;城镇化水平与产业结构之间协调性如何;能否互动发展;城镇化发展能否找到正确的动力;通过产业结构优化调整能否推进城镇化建设,这些都关系着吉林省在走新型城镇化路线中能否抓住机遇,抢占先机,从而实现产业优化升级,城镇化质量得到提升,进一步加快城镇化发展进程。这些问题也是本文的研究目的和研究重点。本文在学习大量国内外文献和理论知识的基础上,首先运用定性和定量的方法对吉林省城镇化发展和产业结构进行了整体的梳理和分析,其中产业结构分为产值结构和就业结构两个方面分析。并且与辽宁省、黑龙江省和全国水平进行了横向比较,以确定吉林省城镇化和产业结构发展的相对地位。其次,利用统计学和计量经济学的方法分析了城镇化和产业结构演进之间的互动关系。得到以下结论:1、吉林省城镇化率水平较高,一直高于全国平均水平,近年来差距逐渐减小,城镇化率增速降低;2、吉林省产业结构已由“二、一、三”转变为“二、三、一”,但是现阶段相对于全国平均水平,第一产业比重较高,第三产业比重较低;3、吉林省城镇化和产业结构优化之间具有长期的均衡关系,第二产业对于城镇化的影响最大,其次是第三产业;4、城镇化发展是二三产业结构调整的原因,但是产业结构的演进并不是城镇化发展的原因,这也说明吉林省现阶段产业结构仍存在不合理之处,对于城镇化发展后续推动能力较差;5、吉林省城镇化和产业结构调整之间联动性较差,不仅仅是因为产业支撑力差,同时也包括城镇之间产业趋同,竞争较强,联动不足的原因。吉林省若想发挥后发优势,在大力推进和发展城镇化,提升城镇化发展质量的同时,必须要考虑城镇化与产业化的互动发展关系,特别是产业结构的优化升级和产城之间协调关系的良好互动。产业结构的优化调整不仅仅包括三次产业内部向高度和深度发展,农产业的现代化,工业的高质量化和集约化,服务业的大力发展,特别是信息产业、高新技术产业等现代化服务业,同时也包括各大类产业内部产业细分的优化与升级。产城之间的良好互动不仅仅包括加强产业结构调整以推动城镇化的发展,同时也应包括各个城镇产业融入特色符号,相互关联,形成合理的产业集群和城市群,实现产业和城镇空间更好的融合。经过审慎思考后,本人认为本文的创新性研究在于以下两个方面:一是,本文对产业结构优化和城镇化的互动关系进行了较为深入的理论研究。利用规范分析方法,查阅和学习并系统梳理了城镇化、产业结构演变、城镇化和产业结构演变之间的互动关系等方面的国内外文献资料。本文尝试从城镇化发展对产业结构演进的影响、产业结构对城镇化发展的影响和在二者相互作用三个层次分析和梳理了现有理论文献,关注到二者之间是否能够良好的协调和互动,决定着二者之间的交互影响力的大小。那么如何合理量化二者间的协调性和二者之间交互影响的大小应是该研究的重要内容,本文在这方面做了一些尝试性的工作,试图为现有文献和理论提供一定的参考价值。二是,有学者认为后发地区第三产业发展起步晚、规模小、水平低,需要依靠外部投入来发展,但内生经济增长理论也表明,单纯依靠外部资金、人力资本等要素的投入的推动作用有限,后发地区第三产业的发展应更多依靠调整优化结构来激活和增强内生动力,因此本文选择将后发地区吉林省的服务业结构作为主要研究对象具有一定的新意。但是,本文仍存在很多不足之处:一是,在选取城镇发展指标时,采用城镇人口占社会总人口比例的方法进行了计算,即选取了人口城镇化率。但是,城镇化是一个综合性的概念,具有丰富的内涵,仅仅采用人口指标并不完整;二是,对于产业结构演进的指标衡量仅采用第二产业和第三产业,并没有细分工业和具体的服务业类目,不能深入和全面的反应吉林省产业结构演进的过程;三,在第四章实证分析控制变量的选取问题上,主要考虑投资和城镇规模两个方面,没有考虑开放程度等其他影响城镇化发展的因素。在未来的研究和学习过程中,希望可以加以改进。
[Abstract]:From the point of view of the general law of urbanization, the urbanization process of different stages of development of the corresponding economic activities of different structures. Generally speaking, the industrialization will lead to the change of industry structure, industry structure and further promote the employment structure change, a large number of rural surplus labor force transfer to towns, join the non-agricultural industry employment, and improve the urbanization rate. In the dynamic process of the evolution of industrial structure, the development of the urbanization of the three industrial adjustment, optimization, upgrade has an important leading role; and the reasonable adjustment of industrial structure also needs to take the city as the carrier, with the Urbanization as the basis, and play a positive role in promoting the development of urbanization. In recent years, Jilin Province Based on the connotation of new urbanization as guidance, thoroughly implement the Scientific Outlook on Development, the spirit of "people-oriented" as the core, and actively promote the province's industrial structure strategic adjustment optimization The whole, and strive to achieve the transformation of the mode of economic development, and provide the basis for the sustainable development of economy and society. But with the national level especially compared to the eastern region, the development of urbanization and the adjustment of industrial structure in Jilin province such a mountainous area, sandy desert, forest town in the hinterland of the distant provinces, traditional agriculture and heavy chemical industry led, it needs more effort. At this stage, how the development of cities and towns in Jilin province level; how to adjust the industrial structure optimization progress; between urbanization and industrial structure coordination ability; interactive development; the development of urbanization can find the correct power; the optimization of industrial structure adjustment can promote the urbanization process, the relationship between Jilin province could seize the opportunity, seize the opportunity in the new urbanization path, so as to realize the optimization and upgrading of industry, city The town of quality improvement, to further accelerate the process of urbanization development. The research purpose and research focus of this paper. These problems are based on studying lots of literature at home and abroad and on the basis of theoretical knowledge, first, using qualitative and quantitative analyses on the overall development of urbanization in Jilin province and Industry structure, which the industrial structure is divided into two aspects of industrial structure and employment structure analysis. And with the Liaoning Province, Heilongjiang province and the national level of the horizontal comparison, to determine the relative position of the development of Jilin province urbanization and the industrial structure. Secondly, analyzes the interactive relationship between urbanization and industrial structure evolution by using statistical and econometric methods. Get the following conclusions: 1, rate of high level of cities and towns in Jilin Province, has been higher than the national average in recent years, the gap decreases, the urbanization rate growth rate is low; 2, Kyrgyzstan The forest industry structure by "two, three" to "two, three", but at this stage compared with the national average level, a higher proportion of the first industry, the third industry proportion is low; 3, has a long-term equilibrium relationship between the urbanization of Jilin province and the optimization of industrial structure, the second industry to urban the largest, followed by the third industry; 4, the development of urbanization is the two or three cause of industrial structure adjustment, but the evolution of the industrial structure is not a factor in the development of urbanization, it also shows that the industrial structure of Jilin province is still unreasonable, for the development of urbanization to promote the follow-up ability is poor; 5, Jilin province the urbanization and the industrial structure adjustment linkage is poor, not only because the industry support force is poor, but also including the industrial convergence, strong competition between towns, due to shortage of linkage between Jilin province. If you want to play the advantage, vigorously The promotion and development of urbanization, improve the quality of urbanization development at the same time, we must consider the relationship between urbanization and industrialization of the interactive development, especially good interaction and coordination between the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and city. The optimization and adjustment of industrial structure not only includes the three industry internal development to the height and depth of the agricultural industry modernization, quantitative and intensive high quality industry, vigorously develop the service industry, especially the information industry, high-tech industry and modern service industry, but also including the optimization of internal subdivision industry each kind of industry and upgrade. A good interaction between the city includes not only to strengthen the adjustment of industrial structure to promote the development of urbanization at the same time, should also include all urban industries with the characteristics of symbols, are related to each other, to form a reasonable industrial cluster and city group, industrial and urban space and better integration. After the trial Think carefully, I think that the innovation of this paper lies in the following two aspects: one is that the interactive relationship between the optimization of industrial structure and urbanization is investigated theoretically. By using the method of normative analysis and access and learning system combing the urbanization, industrial structure evolution, between urbanization and industry the structural evolution of the interaction between aspects of domestic and foreign literature. This article attempts from the development of urbanization on the impact of industrial structure evolution, influence of industrial structure on the development of urbanization and analysis and combing the existing literature in three levels of interaction between the two, pay attention to whether the coordination and interactive relationship between the two that determines the interaction influence between the two sizes. The interaction between the size of coordination of how rational quantification between the two and two should be an important content of the study, this paper in this Do some tentative work, trying to provide a certain reference value for the existing literature and theory. The two is that some scholars believe that after the development of the third industry area started late, small scale, low level, need to rely on external input to the development, but the endogenous economic growth theory also shows that relying solely on external funding, human capital investment promotion Co., after the development of the third industry area should rely more on optimizing the structure to activate and enhance endogenous power, so the structure of the service industry will be issued after the area of Jilin Province as the main research object has a certain originality. However, there are still many deficiencies in this paper: one is in the selection, urban development index, using the method of urban population proportion of total population was calculated, which selects the population urbanization rate. However, urbanization is a comprehensive concept, Has the rich connotation, the only demographic indicators are not complete; the two is for the evolution of industrial structure index using only second and third industries, and no industrial subdivision and specific services category, not in-depth and comprehensive response in Jilin Province industrial structure evolution process; three, in the fourth chapter, empirical analysis selection of control variables, mainly consider two aspects of investment and urban scale, openness and other factors not considered the impact of urbanization development. In the research and learning process in the future, hope can be improved.

【学位授予单位】：吉林财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.27;F127

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