M2影响房地产价格的传导机制初探

发布时间：2018-01-13 01:21

本文关键词：M2影响房地产价格的传导机制初探　出处：《开发性金融研究》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：近年来,房地产市场逐渐进入了繁荣阶段,房地产价格高速增长,与此同时,我国M2的供应量也增速迅猛。本文采用定量分析与定性分析相结合的方法,试图研究M2影响房价的传导机制。首先在理论维度上,从供给和需求两个方面探讨了可能导致房价变化的因素;其次基于2005年至2015年11年间的实证数据,对M2与房价的关系、M2与土地价格的关系、土地价格与房价的关系进行了检验。研究表明,M2对房价影响显著。具体来说,M2对房地产市场的影响分为两个方面:一方面,随着M2的增加,市场需求增加;另一方面,M2增加导致土地价格上涨,市场供给减少,在供给与需求的共同变动影响下,房价上涨。因此,M2的增加实际上是加剧了房价的上升,不仅使得房地产市场存在泡沫经济的隐患,而且挤压了我国实体经济的资金供给,造成实体经济融资困难。因此,应当合理控制M2的供应量,降低实体经济的融资成本,加快税制改革,促进土地市场健康发展,并拓宽投资理财渠道,从而抑制房地产投资热。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the real estate market has gradually entered the boom stage, the real estate price is growing at a high speed, at the same time, the supply of M2 in China is also growing rapidly. This paper adopts the method of combining quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis. This paper tries to study the transmission mechanism of M2 influencing house price. Firstly, it discusses the factors that may lead to the change of house price from the two aspects of supply and demand. Secondly, based on the empirical data from 2005 to 2015, this paper tests the relationship between M2 and house price and the relationship between land price and land price. M2 has a significant impact on housing prices. Specifically, the impact of M2 on the real estate market can be divided into two aspects: on the one hand, with the increase of M2, the market demand increases; On the other hand, the increase of M2 leads to the increase of land price and the decrease of market supply. Under the influence of the change of supply and demand, the house price rises, so the increase of M2 actually intensifies the rise of house price. It not only makes the real estate market exist the hidden trouble of bubble economy, but also squeezes the fund supply of the real economy of our country, resulting in the financing difficulty of the real economy. Therefore, the supply of M2 should be controlled reasonably. To reduce the financing cost of the real economy, accelerate the reform of tax system, promote the healthy development of the land market, and widen the channels of investment and finance, so as to restrain the real estate investment craze.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学国际货币研究所;
【分类号】：F299.23;F822.2
【正文快照】： 一、引言21世纪以来,国民经济步入快速发展时期,与此同时,房地产市场也逐渐进入了繁荣阶段,房地产价格增速迅猛。国家统计局公布的数据显示,2000年,商品房平均销售价格为2 112元/平方米,到2015年攀升至6 793元/平方米,上涨已超过两倍。特别是在大城市,诸如北上广深,房价飙涨的

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