中国制造业就业和工资的影响因素研究——来自细分行业的经验证据

发布时间：2018-01-16 01:17

本文关键词：中国制造业就业和工资的影响因素研究——来自细分行业的经验证据　出处：《南开经济研究》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文通过构建小国经济的劳动力市场一般动态均衡模型,推导出影响就业和工资的主要因素,然后利用岭回归对各因素对中国制造业细分行业就业和工资的影响进行了实证研究,试图找出影响就业和工资的关键因素,同时还考察了行业特征在行业间就业和工资水平差异的形成中所起的作用。研究发现:利率对就业的负向影响最显著,其次是人民币汇率。人民币贬值会拉动绝大部分劳动密集型制造业行业的就业增长,升值则能促进大部分资本和技术密集型行业的就业水平上升,因此人民币升值有利于实现制造业产业结构升级。此外,经营活动的性质是造成制造业行业间就业水平差异的决定性因素,平均受教育水平、专业技术水平、经济性垄断程度和所有制垄断程度能对行业间工资回报差异产生显著影响。研究揭示出:中国未来须实行利率和汇率的市场化改革,运用利率与汇率的协调联动以实现制造业产业结构升级,并保证制造业就业和工资水平的稳定增长。
[Abstract]:By constructing the general dynamic equilibrium model of labor market in small economies, this paper deduces the main factors that affect employment and wages. Then using the ridge regression to analyze the impact of various factors on the employment and wages of the manufacturing sector in China, trying to find out the key factors that affect the employment and wages. At the same time, it also examines the role of industry characteristics in the formation of employment and wage level differences between industries. The study found that interest rates have the most significant negative impact on employment. Then there is the RMB exchange rate. RMB depreciation will stimulate the employment growth of most labor-intensive manufacturing industries, while appreciation can promote the employment level of most capital and technology-intensive industries. In addition, the nature of business activities is the decisive factor of the difference of employment level among manufacturing industries, the average level of education and the level of professional technology. The degree of economic monopoly and ownership monopoly can have a significant impact on the wage return difference among industries. The research reveals that China must carry out the market-oriented reform of interest rate and exchange rate in the future. The coordinated linkage of interest rate and exchange rate is used to realize the upgrading of industrial structure of manufacturing industry and to ensure the steady growth of employment and wage level of manufacturing industry.
【作者单位】：中国海洋大学经济学院;山东大学经济学院;
【基金】：教育部社科规划基金项目“我国过剩产能‘走出去’的优先序及路径——基于异质性企业实物期权博弈的视角”(15YJA790040) 山东省自然科学基金项目“基于国内价值链与全球价值链耦合的山东省装备制造业升级路径研究”(ZR2014GM017) 中国博士后科学基金项目“互联网技术驱动下制造业产业结构升级的路径研究”(2017M610447)资助
【分类号】：F249.2;F424
【正文快照】： 一、引言自改革开放以来,中国努力加快工业化进程和迅速提高制造业比重,制造业获得了飞速发展。当前,中国制造业就业人数在就业总量中所占的比例为28.4%(1),制造业吸纳就业的能力是国民经济其他行业所不能比拟的。受到2008年全球金融危机发酵的影响,近年来全球经济复苏乏力,中

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