PPP基础设施项目风险评价模型的构建及应用研究

发布时间：2018-01-18 11:07

本文关键词：PPP基础设施项目风险评价模型的构建及应用研究　出处：《中南林业科技大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在国家经济建设过程中,基础设施建设起着至关重要的作用。目前,我国在基础设施建设过程中大力推行PPP模式,在运用实践上遇到了一系列风险,迫切需要对其展开系统的项目风险管理研究,这对促进PPP基础设施项目的顺利完成具有重要的理论意义和实用价值。论文详细分析了国内外PPP基础设施项目风险研究的背景与研究现状,归纳总结了研究过程中出现的对PPP基础设施项目风险认识不清、管理失衡及风险分担不当等问题;阐述了 PPP融资模式的基本内涵,以及具有政府职能实现转变、政府与社会资本共担风险、提高经营效率和服务等特点;简述了 PPP基础设施项目的一种开放型组织结构、运作程序以及合同关系等内容,在论述PPP基础设施项目风险管理基本流程和项目风险特征等内容的基础上,归纳提出了若干应对PPP基础设施项目风险的措施,主要包括风险预防、风险回避、风险转移及风险分担等;构建PPP基础设施项目风险灰色评价模型,在对评价指标权重确定的过程中采用优化组合赋权方法,兼顾决策者的偏好及主、客观赋权法本身所包含的信息建立优化模型,通过构造拉格朗日(Langrange)函数进行条件极值求解,得到最终的组合权重;阐述了 PPP基础设施项目风险评价的流程,其先后顺序为:构建风险评价指标体系、确定评价指标的权重、制定评价指标的评分等级、确定评价矩阵、确定灰类及白化权函数、计算灰色评价权、对灰色综合评价值进行计算、按计算结果评定风险等级。目前,PPP模式在给排水项目中应用较多,有针对性的风险研究相对较少,结合AA县给排水PPP项目工程实例,建立风险评价指标体系,对该项目总体风险进行评估,得到了项目总体风险处于中等偏低状态的结论,针对政治、金融等重要风险,提出了政府应为风险的主要承担者或做出某种承诺,以增强私人企业的信心:对产品及服务的价格进行调整、寻求提供第三方担保等风险应对措施。
[Abstract]:In the process of national economic construction, infrastructure construction plays a vital role. At present, our country vigorously promotes the PPP model in the process of infrastructure construction, and has encountered a series of risks in the application practice. It is urgent to carry out systematic research on project risk management. This is of great theoretical significance and practical value to promote the successful completion of PPP infrastructure projects. This paper analyzes the background and research status of PPP infrastructure project risk research at home and abroad in detail. Summarized the research process of the PPP infrastructure project risk awareness is unclear, management imbalance and improper risk sharing and other issues; This paper expounds the basic connotation of PPP financing mode and its characteristics such as the transformation of government functions, the sharing of risks between government and social capital, and the improvement of management efficiency and service. This paper briefly introduces an open organization structure, operation procedure and contract relationship of PPP infrastructure project. On the basis of discussing the basic process of PPP infrastructure project risk management and the characteristics of project risk, this paper summarizes and puts forward some measures to deal with the risk of PPP infrastructure project, including risk prevention. Risk avoidance, risk transfer and risk sharing; The grey evaluation model of PPP infrastructure project risk is constructed. In the process of determining the weight of the evaluation index, the method of optimal combination weight is adopted, which takes into account the preference and the principal of the decision maker. The information contained in the objective weighting method is used to establish the optimization model, and the final combination weight is obtained by constructing Lagrangian Langrange function to solve the conditional extremum. This paper expounds the process of PPP infrastructure project risk evaluation, the sequence of which is to construct the risk evaluation index system, to determine the weight of the evaluation index, to formulate the rating level of the evaluation index, and to determine the evaluation matrix. The grey class and whitening weight function are determined, the grey evaluation weight is calculated, the grey comprehensive evaluation value is calculated, and the risk grade is evaluated according to the calculated results. At present, the PPP model is widely used in water supply and drainage projects. The targeted risk research is relatively few, combined with AA county water supply and drainage PPP project example, set up the risk evaluation index system, to evaluate the overall risk of the project. Get the conclusion that the overall risk of the project is in a medium low state, in view of the political, financial and other important risks, put forward that the government should be the main risk bearer or make a certain commitment. To boost confidence in the private sector: adjust the prices of products and services and seek risk responses such as third-party guarantees.
【学位授予单位】：中南林业科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F283

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