河西走廊城镇化进程中的资源环境压力定量测评研究

发布时间：2018-01-21 05:52

本文关键词： 城镇化资源环境压力压力指数法河西走廊　出处：《干旱区地理》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：以甘肃河西走廊为研究对象,定义了由资源能源约束压力和生态环境压力共同构成的资源环境压力指数,并通过构建指标体系测度城市化水平和资源环境压力水平,利用协整检验和Granger因果检验分析二者之间的定量关系。结果显示:(1)2000-2015年河西走廊地区城镇化进程中的资源环境压力指数呈不断上升趋势。其中,2000-2005年上升趋势较为平缓;从2003年开始,资源环境压力指数的上升有所加快,尤其是2007年以后,该指数年均增长率达到4.4%,表现出资源环境压力逐年上升,资源环境恶化的速度在加快。根据估计的回归方程预测,河西走廊地区的资源环境压力指数将于2026年变为压力"很大"。(2)2000-2015年河西走廊地区的资源能源消耗分指数和环境污染分指数变化趋势对比明显,其中资源能源消耗分指数增速较快,年均增长率达到5.9%,2012年计算的压力值已达到77.12,2013年突破80的分界点,进入压力"很大"的状态,而环境污染分指数变化不大,在28~33之间波动,压力状态为"小"。(3)从资源能源消耗分指数和环境污染分指数的数据点分布来看,所有数据点都分布在对角线的上方,说明工业污染并不是造成该地区资源环境压力的最主要原因,河西走廊地区资源环境压力主要来自于资源能源消耗。因此,未来该区域城镇化过程中,应综合考虑区域自然资源、生态环境和城镇化协同发展,走自然资源"低耗高效型",生态环境"低压强保型"之路。
[Abstract]:In the Hexi Corridor of Gansu Province as the research object, defines the resource environment pressure index is constrained by the pressure of the energy and resources and the ecological environment pressure together, and through the construction of the index system to measure the level of city and environmental pressure level, the quantitative relationship between the cointegration test and Granger causality test two were analyzed. The results showed that: (1) resource environment pressure index of urbanization in Hexi Corridor Region in 2000-2015 showed a rising trend. Among them, 2000-2005 year upward trend is gentle; from the beginning of 2003, the pressure on resources and the environment index rise somewhat faster, especially after 2007, the index of the average annual growth rate of 4.4%, showing the pressure of resources and environment has increased year by year. The deterioration of resources and the environment at a faster rate. According to the prediction of regression equations for the estimation of resource environment pressure index in the Hexi Corridor in 2026 will be changed into the pressure " ". (2) 2000-2015 years in Hexi Corridor region resources and energy consumption index and pollution index change trend is obvious, the resources and energy consumption index of rapid growth, the average annual growth rate reached 5.9% in 2012, the calculated pressure value has reached 77.122013 years of breakthrough cut-off point of 80, into a state of" great pressure "however, pollution index fluctuated between 28~33 fluctuations, pressure for" small ". (3) from resource and energy consumption index and pollution index distribution of the data points, all data points are distributed in the diagonal above, the main reason that industrial pollution is not caused by the pressure of resources and environment the pressure of resources and environment in Hexi area, mainly from the energy consumption of resources. Therefore, the future process of urbanization in the region, should be integrated into the regional natural resources, ecological environment and urbanization coordination Development, natural resources "low consumption and high efficiency type", the ecological environment "low pressure and strong protection" road.

【作者单位】：复旦-甘肃丝绸之路经济带协同发展研究院;丝绸之路经济带河西走廊智库;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目:西北干旱区新型城镇化与生态安全耦合规律及协调发展研究(17BJL050)
【分类号】：F299.27;X24
【正文快照】： 河西走廊是西北乃至全国最重要的生态安全屏障,随着西部大开发的实施,河西走廊城市带成为较具活力的经济区域之一。河西走廊的城市化进程中,土地资源、水资源、电力资源等资源消耗问题比较突出。本文基于绿色可持续发展理论,根据资源环境压力指数法,建立区域城镇化发展与资源

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