新常态下房地产上市公司财务危机预警分析

发布时间：2018-02-09 06:24

本文关键词： 房地产上市公司财务危机预警 Z3值模型　出处：《江苏科技大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2014年,我国进入经济新常态,开启了一个注重质的发展而不是量的时代。经济新常态产生的效应一定会在房地产上市公司有所体现,也必然会对房地产上市公司的财务指标产生影响,所以本文对新常态下我国房地产上市公司财务危机进行预警分析。本文从房地产上市公司财务危机入手,首先概述了房地产上市公司财务危机预警的相关理论基础,为后文的相关研究提供判断标准。其次梳理了国内国外学者关于财务危机预警研究已有的成果,结合新常态下房地产上市公司的现状,从经营状况、盈利能力、财务稳健性、股东回报和市值管理等几个方面对房地产上市公司进行财务危机一般分析。然后选取了房地产A股49家正常上市公司和5家ST公司,从财务指标对房地产财务危机进行识别并构建Z3值模型,收集了这些房地产上市公司2012~2016(2014年经济新常态的前后各取2年)年的报表数据进行财务危机预警实证研究,结果表明:Z3值模型适用于我国房地产上市公司财务危机预警,而且在2014年新常态提出后我国房地产上市公司属于一个自我调节的状态,没有出现较大的财务危机,而且其财务状况在新常态提出之后有一定好转。最后对房地产上市公司的财务危机提出了相应的防范对策。本文从新常态前后房地产上市公司财务危机情况的对比分析入手,从财务危机视角来看新常态政策对房地产上市公司的影响,有助于为我国房地产上市公司的可持续发展提供有益的决策参考。
[Abstract]:In 2014, our country entered the new normal state of economy, which opened an era of focusing on the development of quality rather than quantity. The effect of the new normal state of economy will certainly be reflected in the listed companies of real estate. It will certainly have an impact on the financial indicators of listed real estate companies, so this paper analyzes the financial crisis of listed real estate companies in China under the new normal. This paper starts with the financial crisis of listed companies in real estate. First of all, it summarizes the theoretical basis of financial crisis warning of listed companies in real estate, and provides the judgment criteria for the related research later. Secondly, it combs the research achievements of domestic and foreign scholars on financial crisis early warning. Combined with the current situation of listed real estate companies under the new normal, from the operating situation, profitability, financial stability, This paper analyzes the financial crisis of real estate listed companies in several aspects, such as shareholder return and market value management. Then, 49 normal listed companies and 5 St companies are selected. From the financial indicators to identify the real estate financial crisis and build a Z3 value model, collected these real estate listed companies 20122016 (2014 before and after the new normal economic two years) financial crisis early warning empirical study. The results show that the ratio Z3 value model is applicable to the financial crisis warning of the listed real estate companies in China, and after the new normal was put forward in 2014, the listed real estate companies in our country belong to a self-regulating state, and there is no major financial crisis. Finally, the paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures to prevent the financial crisis of the real estate listed companies. This paper starts with the comparative analysis of the financial crisis of the real estate listed companies before and after the new normal. From the perspective of financial crisis, the impact of the new normal policy on the listed real estate companies is helpful to provide a useful reference for the sustainable development of the listed real estate companies in China.
【学位授予单位】：江苏科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.233.42

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