海西区域物流差异的驱动要素及变化趋势研究

发布时间：2018-02-10 05:48

本文关键词： 区域物流差异驱动要素面板数据模型灰色预测　出处：《华侨大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：海峡西岸经济区(海西)作为我国东南沿海最为重要的区域经济综合体之一,在国家宏观政策的强有力扶持和引导下,已然是国家对接台湾以及21世纪海上丝绸之路的重要门户,地区物流发展水平也显著提升。然而,由于海西内部各地区之间存在资源禀赋、产业基础、区位交通、政策环境等因素的影响,使得各地区间物流业发展难免产生区域非均衡性,适度的非均衡空间,对区域物流的稳定可持续发展有着一定的促进效果,而当非均衡性过大时,则会不利于地区间物流产业的协调稳定。本文着眼于海西区域物流的差异水平情况及其驱动要素分析,并对当地区域物流差异未来几年的变化趋势进行了预测:(1)借助平均差、标准差、极差、Theil指数等非均衡测度方法对海西区域物流绝对与相对差异作了定量测度。结果表明:绝对差异指标均表现出扩张的变化特征,区域物流发展越来越不均衡;在相对差异方面,总体差异呈现“下降—上升”的动态变化特征,区域内差异一直是总体差异水平的主导因素;海西三大区域的区域物流差异大小顺序为:海西东部海西西部海西中部,海西东部差异变化趋势基本与总体差异变化趋势一致,海西中部地区区域物流较为均衡,而海西西部地区差异波动幅度较大,扩大态势显著。(2)分别从区域经济水平、外商投资、物流基础设施、政策引导、劳动力投入、物流市场需求、产业结构、城市化率、地理区位9个方面定性分析了区域物流发展的驱动要素;然后建立面板数据回归模型,估计得出人均GDP、交通线路网络密度、人均工业增加值、城市化率、政府引导力对区域物流发展有着正向影响,其中人均工业增加值对区域物流发展水平的正向影响程度最大,而物流固定资产投资、第二产业占比、物流从业人数以及人均社会消费品零售总额则对区域物流发展水平有着负向影响。(3)利用灰色预测模型预测未来几年海西区域物流总体差异和海西东部区域物流差异将出现趋缓上升的变化趋势,海西西部地区区域物流差异将扩大趋势明显,并处于倒“U”曲线的加速上升阶段。同时,结合海西具体社会经济情况,针对性地提出了实现区域物流可持续发展的对策建议。
[Abstract]:As one of the most important regional economic complexes along the southeast coast of China, the Economic Zone of the West Bank of the Straits (Hercynian) is strongly supported and guided by the national macro policies. It has already been an important gateway for the country to connect with Taiwan and the maritime Silk Road in 21th century, and the level of regional logistics development has also improved significantly. However, due to the existence of resource endowments, industrial bases, and regional transportation among the various regions within Hercynian, Due to the influence of policy environment and other factors, the development of logistics industry in different regions inevitably produces regional disequilibrium. The moderate disequilibrium space can promote the stable and sustainable development of regional logistics to a certain extent, but when the disequilibrium is too large, This paper focuses on the analysis of the difference level of Hercynian regional logistics and its driving factors, and forecasts the variation trend of local regional logistics difference in the next few years. The non-equilibrium measurement methods such as standard deviation, range difference and Theil index are used to measure quantitatively the absolute and relative differences of Hercynian regional logistics. The results show that the absolute difference indexes all show the characteristics of expansion, and the development of regional logistics is becoming more and more unbalanced. In terms of relative differences, the overall differences show the dynamic characteristics of "descending and rising", and intraregional differences have always been the dominant factor in the level of overall differences; The order of the regional logistics differences among the three major regions of Hercynian is as follows: the eastern Hercynian, the western Hercynian, the central Hercynian, the eastern Hercynian, and the regional logistics in the central Hercynian are more balanced. However, in the western Hercynian region, the regional economic level, foreign investment, logistics infrastructure, policy guidance, labor input, logistics market demand, industrial structure, and urbanization rate are respectively from the regional economic level, foreign investment, logistics infrastructure, policy guidance, industrial structure, and urbanization rate. The driving factors of regional logistics development are qualitatively analyzed in 9 aspects of geographical location, and then the panel data regression model is established to estimate the per capita GDP, the density of traffic line network, the per capita added value of industry, the rate of urbanization. Government guidance has a positive impact on the development of regional logistics, in which the per capita industrial added value has the greatest positive impact on the level of regional logistics development, while the investment in fixed assets of logistics accounts for the second industry. The number of logistics practitioners and the per capita retail sales of consumer goods have a negative impact on the level of regional logistics development.) the grey forecasting model is used to predict the overall difference of regional logistics in the next few years and the regional logistics difference in the eastern part of Hercynian. There is going to be a gradual upward trend, The regional logistics difference in the western area of Hercynian will expand obviously and be in the accelerating rising stage of inverted "U" curve. At the same time, combined with the specific social and economic situation of Hercynian, the countermeasures and suggestions to realize the sustainable development of regional logistics are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：华侨大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F259.27

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