货币供应、银行信贷与我国的房地产价格泡沫——基于面板数据动态GMM法的实证检验

发布时间：2018-02-26 02:32

本文关键词： 房价收入比货币供应银行信贷 GMM法　出处：《金融理论与实践》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：近年我国房价急剧上涨所形成的泡沫问题已成为可能诱发系统性金融风险的重要因素。以房价收入比作为衡量房地产价格泡沫的评价指标,基于2006—2015年我国35个大中城市的面板数据,运用动态GMM法实证检验了货币供应、银行信贷对房地产价格泡沫的影响作用。结果表明:我国房地产价格泡沫存在跨期动态传递效应,货币供应量和银行信贷对房地产价格泡沫有显著的正向影响,固定资产投资、产业结构、城市化等亦对房地产价格泡沫产生不同程度影响,而上述因素的作用效应在房地产价格不同泡沫程度区域呈现异质性特征。鉴于此,中央政府有必要调整相对宽松的货币政策和房地产信贷政策,采取"因城施策"的差异化调控机制,有效抑制房地产泡沫。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the bubble problem caused by the sharp rise of house price in China has become an important factor that may induce systemic financial risk. The ratio of house price to income is taken as the evaluation index of real estate price bubble. Based on panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2006 to 2015, this paper empirically tests the effect of money supply and bank credit on real estate price bubble by using dynamic GMM method. Money supply and bank credit have significant positive effects on real estate price bubbles. Fixed asset investment, industrial structure, urbanization and so on also have different effects on real estate price bubbles. The effects of these factors are heterogeneous in different bubble regions of real estate prices. In view of this, it is necessary for the central government to adjust the relatively loose monetary policy and the real estate credit policy. Adopt the differential regulation mechanism of "because of city strategy", restrain the real estate bubble effectively.
【作者单位】：四川大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F299.23;F822.2;F832.4

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