中国房地产上市企业财务杠杆影响因素的实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-02 19:34

本文选题：房地产　切入点：财务杠杆　出处：《上海社会科学院》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：房地产行业作为我国国民经济和社会发展中的支柱产业,在生产、流通、分配和消费等各个环节均发挥举足轻重的纽带作用。同时,房地产作为资金密集型产业,内部资本结构对于行业长远的稳健发展,起着至关重要的作用。财务杠杆水平的高低反映着企业偿债能力和财务风险,是企业稳健发展的"温度计",直接体现企业资本结构。目前我国大多数房地产企业依然维持高负债运营,在利率上行阶段,高负债可能会引发严重的财务风险。本文在参考经典资本结构理论和国内外相关实证分析的基础上,首先以96家房地产上市企业的财务数据为样本,分析房地产上市企业财务杠杆的变动趋势及其分布情况,得出较为合理的杠杆区间。然后从理论角度分析企业经营和宏观经济对财务杠杆的影响,据此提出合理假设,并选择合适的代理变量。在进行初步描述性统计的基础上,引入企业性质这一虚拟变量,进行全样本实证回归,得出各变量对财务杠杆的影响方向与影响程度。然后再按照企业性质分别进行实证回归,并与全样本回归结果进行对比,尝试分析不同结果背后的深层原因。最后,尝试性提出相关建议。第二章对本文的理论基础进行梳理与分析。首先对资本结构理论进行系统的回顾,接着对于国内外学者的相关文献按照发展历程与研究结果两个维度进行梳理。第三章分析房地产行业的产业特性,进行样本筛选,对目前我国房地产上市企业财务杠杆的变动趋势进行描述,并通过财务杠杆、财务杠杆系数、总资产收益率三大指标的统计实证结果,确定目前适用于房地产行业的最佳杠杆区间。第四章在总结目前国内外已有的房地产业财务杠杆研究成果的基础上,提出可能影响房地产行业财务杠杆水平的宏观经济因素和企业内部因素,从理论角度分析其影响机理,并据此提出合理假设,筛选合适的代理变量。第五章主要对国内房地产行业财务杠杆水平的企业内部因素与宏观经济因素进行实证回归。在描述性统计的基础上,引入企业性质这一虚拟变量,首先对全样本进行分析,而后按照企业性质不同分别进行子样本的计量分析,最后对比并分析回归结果的差异。第六章为结论、建议部分,总结本文的主要结论,提出相关建议,并提出本文研究的不足之处。本文的主要结论包括,我国房地产上市企业的财务杠杆水平呈现不断上涨趋势,理论上行业的最佳财务杠杆区间为0.5-0.7。对全样本的回归结果显示,公司规模、盈利能力、抵押资产价值、成长性、物价水平、信贷规模与财务杠杆呈正相关,非债务税盾、城市化水平与财务杠杆呈负相关,并且企业性质对财务杠杆有显著影响。企业性质对于财务杠杆影响的不同表现在于,国有制企业受宏观经济影响更显著,其财务杠杆与盈利能力呈负相关,而非国有企业的财务杠杆与盈利能力呈正相关,与成长性无显著相关关系。并且国有企业财务杠杆水平明显高于非国有企业。本文可能存在的创新之处是:首先,在供给侧改革的时代背景下,聚焦于房地产行业的财务杠杆,强调行业特性对财务杠杆的影响;其次,本文突破性的将企业性质对财务杠杆水平的影响纳入研究范畴,依据股东背景的不同,分析样本企业在财务杠杆水平和其影响因素上的差异,强调国有资本发挥的作用;再次,本文在影响因素的考量上,将微观企业变量与宏观经济变量相结合,更符合房地产市场的发展特征;最后,本文选择采用面板数据进行研究,能够有效避免共线性问题,实证结果具有一定的解释力度。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry as a pillar industry of China's national economic and social development in all aspects of production, circulation, distribution and consumption play a pivotal role in the link. At the same time, real estate as a capital intensive industry, the capital structure for the industry long-term steady development, plays a vital role in the financial leverage. Reflect the level of enterprise solvency and financial risk, is the healthy development of enterprises "thermometer", directly reflects the enterprise capital structure. At present, most of China's real estate enterprises still maintain high operating liabilities, interest rates in the upward phase, high debt could lead to serious financial risk. Based on analysis of the classical capital structure theory and reference the domestic and foreign relevant empirical analysis, financial data based on the 96 listed real estate companies as the sample, analysis of the tendency of real estate companies and financial leverage The distribution, draw a reasonable leverage range. And then analyze the impact of the enterprise management and the macro economy on the financial leverage from the perspective of theory, put forward reasonable assumptions, and select the appropriate proxy variables. Based on the preliminary descriptive statistics, introducing a dummy variable of the nature of the enterprise, the whole sample regression, the variables affecting the direction and degree of financial leverage effect. Then according to the nature of the enterprise to carry out empirical regression, and compared with the regression results of the full sample, try a deep reasons behind different results. Finally, it puts forward relevant suggestions. Combing with the analysis of the second chapter is the theoretical basis of this paper. First, systematic review the theory of capital structure, then the related literatures in accordance with the development and research results of the two dimensions to sort out. The third chapter analysis room The characteristics of the industry of the real estate industry, the sample selection, to describe the change trend of the financial leverage of listed real estate companies at present, and through financial leverage, financial leverage, empirical statistics total assets yield three index results, determine the best leverage interval currently applicable to the real estate industry. In the fourth chapter summary the basis of the domestic and foreign existing real estate financial leverage on the research results, this may affect the macroeconomic factors of financial leverage level of the real estate industry and internal factors, from the theoretical point of view of its impact mechanism, and put forward reasonable assumptions, screening agent variables appropriate. The fifth chapter mainly internal factors of financial leverage the level of the domestic real estate industry and macroeconomic factors for empirical regression. Based on descriptive statistics, introducing a dummy variable of the nature of the enterprise, first of all All samples were analyzed, then according to the different nature of the enterprise measurement were sub sample analysis, finally we compare and analyse the difference between regression results. The sixth chapter is the conclusion and suggestion part, summarized the main conclusions of this paper, puts forward relevant suggestions and points out the inadequacies of this study. The main conclusions of this paper include China's real estate listed the enterprise's financial leverage levels showed a rising trend, the best financial leverage theory on industry for the 0.5-0.7. interval of the whole sample regression results show that company size, profitability, collateral value of assets, growth, price level, credit scale and financial leverage are positively related, non debt tax shield, city level was negatively correlated with financial leverage, and the nature of the enterprise has a significant impact on financial leverage. The nature of enterprise performance for different financial leverage effect is that state-owned enterprises by the macroeconomic impact of more Obviously, the financial leverage is negatively correlated with profitability, and non state-owned enterprises, financial leverage and profitability are positively related, and no significant correlation with growth and financial leverage level of state-owned enterprises was significantly higher than that of non state-owned enterprises. The possible innovation is: first, on the supply side reform under the background of the times, financial leverage is focused on the real estate industry, emphasizing the industry characteristics and financial leverage; secondly, the breakthrough will affect the nature of the financial lever into the scope of the study, on the basis of shareholder background, analysis of differences in factors of sample enterprise financial leverage level and its impact on the state-owned capital, emphasize the role of; again, based on the consideration of the influence factors on the micro enterprise variables and macroeconomic variables combined, in line with the development characteristics of the real estate market; the most after the harvest The study of panel data can effectively avoid the problem of collinearity, and the empirical results have a certain degree of explanation.

【学位授予单位】：上海社会科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.233.42

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