2017—2018年中国宏观经济分析与预测

发布时间：2018-03-11 01:37

本文选题：中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)　切入点：宏观经济预测　出处：《厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】："中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)"课题组于2017年2月22日发布了中国季度宏观经济模型第二十二次预测。预测显示,中国经济增速将继续减速,但增速下降的幅度将逐步收窄;经济有望维持一个温和稳定的通货膨胀率水平。预计2017年GDP全年增速为6.64%,CPI上涨2.15%;2018年,GDP增长率将下探至6.59%,CPI增速略降至2.03%。模拟研究发现,消费结构转型升级能够促进人力资本积累,从而对经济增长产生积极影响;基于混合所有制改革与去杠杆协同发力的供给侧政策,能够显著改善投资结构、提升投资效率,在带来较显著经济增长效应的同时降低投资占GDP的比重。因此,必须坚定不移地坚持扩大开放,稳定民营企业家信心;将供给侧结构性改革的侧重点逐步转向降成本、补短板;全面落实《中共中央关于全面深化改革若干重大问题的决定》,致力于现代国家治理体系与治理能力的建设,是降成本、补制度短板的根本之策;充分调动全体人民群众、基层单位、各级地方政府、各级部门的改革热情,是落实全面深化改革的根本。
[Abstract]:On February 22nd 2017, the research group of China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (QMM) released 22th forecasts of China's quarterly macroeconomic model. The forecast shows that China's economic growth rate will continue to slow down, but the decline in growth rate will gradually narrow down. The economy is expected to maintain a moderate and stable inflation rate. In 2017, the GDP growth rate for the whole year is expected to be 6.64% and 2.15% respectively. In 2018, the GDP growth rate will drop to 6.59% and the CPI growth rate will drop slightly to 2.03%. Simulation studies have found that the upgrading of the consumer structure can promote the accumulation of human capital. Therefore, the supply-side policy based on the combination of mixed ownership reform and deleveraging can significantly improve the investment structure and increase the investment efficiency. Therefore, we must unswervingly adhere to opening wider, stabilize the confidence of private entrepreneurs, shift the emphasis of supply-side structural reform to lower cost and make up for the shortage. The full implementation of the decision of the CPC Central Committee on several important issues of comprehensively deepening reform and devoting itself to the construction of the governance system and governance capacity of the modern state is the fundamental strategy for reducing costs and making up for the shortcomings of the system, and fully mobilize the entire masses of the people. The reform enthusiasm of grass-roots units, local governments and departments at all levels is the fundamental to carry out comprehensive reform.
【作者单位】：厦门大学宏观经济研究中心;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“经济持续健康发展与收入倍增计划的实现路径研究”(13&ZD029);国家社科基金重大项目“需求结构转换背景下提高消费对经济增长贡献研究”(15ZDC011);国家社科基金一般项目“新常态下资源再配置与效率增进研究”(15BJL008) 教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目“中国经济潜在增速的测算与展望研究”(15JZD016) 国家自科基金青年项目“中国城市规模与城市居民工资不平等研究”(71503222) 中央高校基本业务科研经费资助项目“中国实践背景现代宏观经济理论与政策”(20720151037)
【分类号】：F105

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