高技术产业发展对人口城镇化的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-11 17:07

本文选题：高技术产业　切入点：人口城镇化　出处：《安徽财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,随着工业化快速发展,我国人口城镇化进程明显加速,但同时也存在人口城镇化滞后于土地城镇化,城镇化发展落后于工业化等问题。当前我国经济在创新驱动下快速发展,高技术产业关联效应有力促进其他产业发展,带动城镇就业,推动人口城镇化发展。因此,本文研究高技术产业对人口城镇化的影响,对推动人口城镇化进程有重要意义。本文首先系统梳理了国内外关于高技术产业和人口城镇化的文献,并在此基础上基于理论分析阐述高技术产业发展对人口城镇化的作用机制,分析发现高技术产业主要通过促进人口向城镇转移、提高经济增长的城镇就业弹性、促进产业结构升级三个方面推动人口城镇化进程。其次,对高技术产业和人口城镇化的现状作简要分析,得出高技术产业规模不断扩大,区域发展不均衡。人口城镇化水平逐年提升,且城镇就业对人口城镇化的带动作用日益明显。再次,用不同方法研究高技术产业对城镇就业的影响,建立VAR模型从高技术产业整体进行考察,发现高技术产业能够带动二、三产业就业的增加;再采用灰色关联分析方法分部门进行考察,发现航空航天器制造业对城镇就业的促进作用最显著;最后通过构建面板模型回归估计高技术产业对城镇就业的乘数效应,得出高技术产业对城镇制造业和服务业均有较高的就业乘数效应,能够有力地带动城镇就业。采用固定效应面板模型对全国和各地区进行实证研究,发现全国及各地区高技术产业发展均对人口城镇化有明显的促进作用,其中东部地区作用最显著;城镇就业对处于快速发展阶段的中部地区促进作用最明显;由于各地区人口城镇化发展所处的阶段不同,城镇就业与高技术产业发展水平的交互作用在中部地区最显著,西部地区次之,东部地区最不显著。产业结构和经济发展水平均对人口城镇化有较大影响,过高的人口文盲率和过大的城乡收入差距不利于人口城镇化发展。最后,基于理论分析和实证分析结果总结了本文的主要结论,并从积极发展制造业和服务业、合理规划高技术产业布局、加强区域交流与合作三个角度,提出推动人口城镇化发展的基本思路。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of industrialization, the process of population urbanization in China has obviously accelerated, but at the same time, there is also a population urbanization lags behind the urbanization of land. The development of urbanization lags behind that of industrialization. At present, the economy of our country is developing rapidly under the driving of innovation, and the correlation effect of high-tech industries can promote the development of other industries, promote urban employment and promote the development of population urbanization. This paper studies the impact of high-tech industry on population urbanization, which is of great significance to promote the process of population urbanization. Firstly, this paper systematically combs the literature on high-tech industry and population urbanization at home and abroad. On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper expounds the mechanism of the development of high-tech industry on the urbanization of the population, and finds out that the high-tech industry mainly promotes the transfer of population to the town, and improves the economic growth of urban employment elasticity. Promote the upgrading of industrial structure to promote the process of population urbanization. Secondly, a brief analysis of the current situation of high-tech industries and population urbanization shows that the scale of high-tech industries continues to expand. Regional development is not balanced. The level of population urbanization is increasing year by year, and the driving effect of urban employment on population urbanization is increasingly obvious. Thirdly, using different methods to study the impact of high-tech industries on urban employment, The VAR model is established to investigate the high-tech industry as a whole, and it is found that the high-tech industry can lead to the increase of employment in the secondary and tertiary industries. It is found that the aeronautical and spacecraft manufacturing industry has the most significant effect on urban employment. Finally, the multiplier effect of high-tech industry on urban employment is estimated by building panel model. It is concluded that high-tech industry has a higher employment multiplier effect on both urban manufacturing and service industries, which can promote urban employment. The fixed effect panel model is used to conduct empirical research on the whole country and various regions. It is found that the development of high-tech industries in China and other regions has a significant role in promoting the urbanization of the population, among which the role of the eastern region is the most significant, and the role of urban employment is the most obvious in the central region, which is in the stage of rapid development. Due to the different stages of population urbanization in different regions, the interaction between urban employment and the development level of high-tech industries is the most significant in the central region, followed by the western region. The structure of industry and the level of economic development have great influence on the urbanization of the population. The high illiteracy rate of the population and the excessive income gap between urban and rural areas are not conducive to the development of population urbanization. Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, this paper summarizes the main conclusions of this paper, and from the positive development of manufacturing and service industries, reasonable planning of high-tech industry layout, strengthening regional exchanges and cooperation. Put forward the basic train of thought to promote the development of population urbanization.
【学位授予单位】：安徽财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F276.44;F299.21

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