我国楼市泡沫的组合测度与化解路径

发布时间：2018-03-17 23:26

本文选题：楼市泡沫　切入点：供给侧结构性改革　出处：《统计与决策》2017年16期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：文章首先基于向量夹角余弦的GWA算子组合测度模型,对1998—2015年我国楼市泡沫进行了组合测度;然后基于残差自回归模型,对2016—2020年我国楼市泡沫进行了外推预警分析;最后基于VAR模型的脉冲响应函数,实证分析了1999—2010年我国住宅供给结构和楼市泡沫之间的长期动态关系。结果表明:我国楼市泡沫度呈增长态势,未来存在偏离安全区间的一定风险;我国经适房、商品房供给比例的冲击对楼市泡沫分别有负向效应和正向效应,而楼市泡沫的冲击对经适房、商品房供给比例也具有同样效应,从而有效论证了基于供给侧结构性改革视阈下的我国楼市泡沫化解路径的可行性。
[Abstract]:Based on the GWA operator combination measure model of vector angle cosine, this paper measures the bubble of China's property market from 1998 to 2015, and then, based on the residual autoregressive model, makes an extrapolation and early warning analysis on the bubble of China's property market from 2016 to 2020. Finally, based on the impulse response function of VAR model, this paper empirically analyzes the long-term dynamic relationship between the housing supply structure and the housing bubble in China from 1999 to 2010. The results show that the bubble degree of China's real estate market is increasing. There is a certain risk of deviating from the safe range in the future. Comfortable housing, the impact of commercial housing supply ratio has negative effect and positive effect on the property bubble, while the impact of the property bubble has a negative effect on comfortable housing. The ratio of commercial housing supply also has the same effect, which effectively demonstrates the feasibility of the solution path of China's property market bubble based on the supply-side structural reform.
【作者单位】：安徽财经大学数量经济研究所;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金资助项目(12BTJ008) 安徽财经大学研究生科研创新基金资助项目(ACYC2015083)
【分类号】：F224;F299.23

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