低碳视觉下我国煤炭、石油与可再生能源的替代

发布时间：2018-03-21 06:57

本文选题：可再生能源　切入点：能源替代　出处：《中国农业资源与区划》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：[目的]使用1970~2013年时间序列数据,分析了低碳情景下我国煤炭、石油与可再生能源的消费替代。[方法与结果]单位根检验显示各变量是一阶单整Ⅰ(1)。Johansen协整检验说明变量之间存在着协整关系。FMOLS回归表明,GDP、煤炭消费和石油消费会提高CO2排放量,可再生能源消费会降低CO2排放量。长期内,GDP、煤炭、石油、可再生能源消费与CO2排放之间存在着双向的Granger因果关系。短期内,可再生能源消费与GDP、CO2排放之间存在着双向Granger因果关系。煤炭、石油消费是可再生能源消费的单向Granger原因。GDP是煤炭消费、CO2排放的单向Granger原因。石油消费是GDP的单向Granger原因。广义预测误差方差分解显示,实行从煤炭、石油消费到可再生能源的燃料替代将会降低环境污染,提高环境可持续性。[结论]基于上述实证研究,提出建立激励机制,实现可再生能源对煤炭、石油的替代,转变能源消费结构,降低煤炭和石油消费比例,开发利用可再生能源,为可再生能源的发展建立硬性约束,提高环境可持续性等建议。
[Abstract]:[objective] using the time series data from 1970 to 2013, the coal in China under low carbon scenarios was analyzed. Consumption substitution of Petroleum and Renewable Energy. [methods and results] the unit root test shows that the variables are first-order univariate I + 1. Johansen cointegration test shows that there is a cointegration relationship between the variables. FMOLS regression shows that CO2 emissions are increased by coal consumption and oil consumption. Renewable energy consumption reduces CO2 emissions. In the long run, there is a two-way Granger causality between GDP, coal, oil, renewable energy consumption and CO2 emissions. There is a two-way Granger causality between renewable energy consumption and Granger CO2 emissions. Petroleum consumption is the unidirectional Granger cause of renewable energy consumption. Granger is the unidirectional Granger cause of CO2 emission from coal consumption. Oil consumption is the unidirectional Granger cause of GDP. Fuel substitution from petroleum consumption to renewable energy will reduce environmental pollution and improve environmental sustainability. [conclusion] based on the above empirical research, an incentive mechanism is proposed to realize the substitution of renewable energy to coal and oil. It is suggested to change the energy consumption structure, reduce the proportion of coal and oil consumption, develop and utilize renewable energy, set up rigid constraints for the development of renewable energy, and improve environmental sustainability.
【作者单位】：南京晓庄学院商学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“碳减排约束下的碳税经济效应研究”(15BGL144) 教育部人文社会科学基金青年项目“政府R&D资助政策工具对中小企业技术创新能力的影响研究”(10YJC790005) 江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目“我国城镇化、能源消费、经济增长、碳减排动态关系研究”(KYZZ15_0 106)
【分类号】：F224;F426.2

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