老龄化背景下中国劳动供给变动及其经济影响:基于CGE模型的分析

发布时间：2018-03-22 04:39

本文选题：人口老龄化　切入点：劳动力　出处：《人口研究》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：文章研究老龄化背景下中国未来劳动供给的变动趋势及其经济影响。基于可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,将不同年龄劳动者在劳动效率方面的差异纳入劳动供给要素的考察范围,定量评估人口规模与年龄结构、劳动参与率与劳动力总量、有效劳动总量的变动趋势及其对劳动力要素价格、经济产出及产业结构变动的影响。结果表明,中国有效劳动供给在达到峰值后的降速将快于人口总量和劳动力总量的变动,且更具波动性;在以有效劳动衡量劳动供给变动的模拟情景下,21世纪上半叶中国GDP增长率的降速将快于只考虑人口总量或劳动力总量变动的情景;若只考虑劳动年龄人口变动对劳动供给的影响,而忽视不同年龄劳动者在劳动效率方面的异质性,则有可能低估未来经济增长。
[Abstract]:This paper studies the changing trend and economic impact of labor supply in China under the background of aging. Based on the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, the differences in labor efficiency of workers of different ages are included in the investigation scope of labor supply elements. Quantitative assessment of the population size and age structure, the labor force participation rate and the total labor force, the trend of the total amount of effective labor and its influence on the price of labor factors, economic output and the change of industrial structure. After reaching the peak, the effective labor supply in China will decline faster than the total population and labor force, and will be more volatile. Under the simulated situation of measuring the change of labor supply by effective labor, the GDP growth rate of China in the first half of the 21st century will decline faster than the scenario of considering only the total population or the total labor force. It is possible to underestimate the economic growth in the future if we only consider the influence of the change of the working-age population on the labor supply and ignore the heterogeneity of the labor efficiency of the workers of different ages.
【作者单位】：复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院、人口与发展政策研究中心;挪威奥斯陆大学国际气候与环境研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金重大课题(编号:71490735) 上海市浦江人才计划(编号:16PJC019)
【分类号】：C924.24;F249.2

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