中国对外贸易对有效就业影响的研究

发布时间：2018-03-31 22:13

本文选题：对外贸易　切入点：有效就业　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：经济增长和充分就业是各国宏观经济政策的重要目标,随着我国加入世贸组织过渡时期的终结,对外贸易对我国经济以及社会方面的影响愈加明显,我国近十年的贸易依存度接近50%,但对外贸易发展的同时我国仍旧面临较为严峻的就业压力。国内学者对我国就业问题的研究显示我国存在较为严重的隐性失业现象。因此,深入研究对外贸易对社会整体有效就业增长的贡献十分必要,研究可以为我国对外贸易以及就业政策的制定提供依据。本文在归纳国内外学者相关研究的基础上,建立理论分析框架,随后在理论分析框架的基础上进行实证分析。首先估算中国整体有效就业量,然后利用统计学方法对研究数据进行时间序列分析,运用单位根根检验、协整分析、格兰杰因果检验方法进行实证研究。研究结果表明:我国对外贸易量和社会整体有效就业量之间存在协整关系,即对外贸易量与社会整体有效就业之间存在长期均衡关系。最后结合中国当前的外贸和就业实际情况分析理论及实证研究的结果,为通过对外贸易促进就业提出政策意见。
[Abstract]:Economic growth and full employment are the important goals of the macroeconomic policies of all countries. With the end of the transitional period of China's accession to the WTO, the impact of foreign trade on China's economy and society becomes more and more obvious. China's trade dependence is close to 50% in the past ten years, but at the same time, our country still faces more severe employment pressure while the foreign trade develops. The domestic scholars' research on our country's employment problem shows that there is a serious hidden unemployment phenomenon in our country. It is necessary to deeply study the contribution of foreign trade to the effective employment growth of society as a whole. The research can provide the basis for the formulation of foreign trade and employment policy in China. A theoretical analysis framework is established, and then empirical analysis is carried out on the basis of the theoretical analysis framework. First, the effective employment in China as a whole is estimated, then the time series analysis of the research data is carried out using statistical method, and the unit root root test is used. Cointegration analysis and Granger causality test are used in the empirical research. The results show that there is a cointegration relationship between the volume of foreign trade and the total effective employment of the society as a whole. That is, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the volume of foreign trade and the overall effective employment of society. Finally, combined with the analysis of China's current foreign trade and employment actual situation and the results of empirical research, the paper puts forward policy suggestions for promoting employment through foreign trade.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752;F249.2

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