第二代“克强指数”的构造及实证检验

发布时间：2018-04-03 17:59

本文选题：克强指数　切入点：经济发展水平　出处：《中国科学技术大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：2017年1月,一则"辽宁省政府公开承认GDP造假"的新闻在社会上引起了巨大反响。关于经济数据的真实性再次引发了社会公众的质疑。"克强指数"的诞生则是为了消除人们对于政府公布的GDP的疑虑,更加真实的还原国家的经济发展情况。"克强指数"一词最早来自于2007年时任职辽宁省委书记的李克强总理考核辽宁省整体经济状况的一种方法,它起初由3个基础指标——工业用电量、银行中长期贷款发放量、铁路货运量构成。之后在2015年的政府工作报告上,李克强总理将3个基本指标变更为:研究与试验发展经费支出占GDP比重、银行中长期贷款发放量、能耗强度。本文的主要工作在于借鉴花旗银行编制第一代"克强指数"的方法和目的,构造第二代"克强指数"。本文首先通过Pearson相关性检验和回归理论证明3个基础指标的可靠性,接着使用主成分分析法、熵权法、灰色关联分析法3种方法完成初始赋权工作,之后通过合作博弈的方法完成第二代"克强指数"的最终构造,最后以"人均可支配收入"为参照标杆,对第二代"克强指数"构造的可行性加以验证。
[Abstract]:In January 2017, the news that the Liaoning provincial government publicly acknowledged the GDP fraud caused a huge social response.The authenticity of economic data has once again raised questions from the public. "The Keqiang Index was "created to dispel doubts about the government's announcement of GDP and to restore the country's economic development more realistically."The term "Ke Qiang Index" first came from a method used by Premier Li Keqiang, who was secretary of the Liaoning Provincial Party Committee in 2007, to assess the overall economic situation of Liaoning Province. It was initially made up of three basic indicators-industrial electricity consumption and the amount of medium- and long-term loans issued by banks.Railway freight volume composition.Then in the 2015 government work report, Premier Li Keqiang changed three basic indicators to: the proportion of research and experimental development expenditure to GDP, the amount of long-term loans issued by banks, and the intensity of energy consumption.The main work of this paper is to draw lessons from the method and purpose of compiling the first generation "Keqiang Index" by Citibank, and construct the second Generation "Keqiang Index".In this paper, the reliability of the three basic indexes is first proved by Pearson correlation test and regression theory, and then the three methods of principal component analysis, entropy weight and grey correlation analysis are used to complete the initial weighting work.Then the final construction of the second generation "Keqiang Index" is completed by the cooperative game method, and the feasibility of the second generation "Keqiang Index" is verified by taking "per capita disposable income" as the reference bar.
【学位授予单位】：中国科学技术大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F224;F124

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