城镇化、社会保障与拉动内需实证分析

发布时间：2018-04-08 16:21

本文选题：内需　切入点：城镇化　出处：《合作经济与科技》2017年09期

【摘要】：本文基于1990~2013年时间序列数据,运用VAR模型,对城镇化、社会保障以及拉动内需的关系进行实证研究,通过单位根、协整、格兰杰因果关系检验,以及脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析,可以知道:城镇化、社会保障以及拉动内需之间存在长期的协整关系,社会保障率的提高能够有效促进居民消费,而城镇化水平的提高又能够有效地促进社会保障体系的完善,三者相辅相成,共同促进经济的增长。
[Abstract]:Based on the time series data from 1990 to 2013, using VAR model, this paper makes an empirical study on the relationship among urbanization, social security and stimulating domestic demand, through unit root, cointegration, Granger causality test.As well as impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis, we can know that there is a long-term cointegration relationship among urbanization, social security and stimulating domestic demand, and the increase of social security rate can effectively promote residents' consumption.The improvement of urbanization level can effectively promote the improvement of social security system.
【作者单位】：石河子大学商学院;
【分类号】：D632.1;F299.21;F126.1

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