化解产能过剩政策对重工业城市房地产需求的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-10 06:24

本文选题：化解产能过剩政策　切入点：重工业城市　出处：《湘潭大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：在全国范围内,房地产市场出现供求结构失衡,库存挤压问题严重,亟待化解输出。与此同时,积极化解产能过剩同样是新常态下经济发展的重点之一。从短期来看,产能的降低不可避免地会对经济产生负面冲击,对于重工业城市而言,化解产能过剩政策涉及的行业担任着城市经济增长的支柱产业角色,政策实施带来的经济基本面下调的负面效应会在重工业城市被放大,从而降低了该城市的房地产市场需求,不利于重工业城市房地产库存的消化。因此,探讨我国重工业城市房地产需求受化解产能过剩政策的影响,对重工业城市房地产业的合理发展有积极作用。纵观房地产需求影响因素、化解产能过剩及其政策影响的文献,几乎没有将两者相联系,分析其相互影响的研究。本文的研究目的为分析化解产能过剩政策对重工业城市房地产需求的影响,不仅与现有经济形势相结合,而且扩宽了房地产业学术研究的范畴,具有理论价值和现实意义。本文首先梳理了国内外关于房地产需求影响因素、化解产能政策及其相互影响方面的文献;其次,在理论阐述方面,以房地产需求影响因素和产能过剩相关理论为基础,对化解产能过剩政策影响重工业城市房地产需求的传导机制进行分析;再者,对我国化解产能过剩政策的提出过程加以描述后,提出划分重工业城市的定量方法,并运用PSM倾向得分匹配法为典型重工业城市匹配对照城市,从整体和典型两个角度对重工业城市的房地产需求现状进行描述。实证方面,基于全国房地产百城2013-2015年的短面板数据,构建一阶差分模型和双重差分模型,检验了化解产能过剩政策对重工业城市房地产需求的影响,并通过解释变量的细化定义,对化解产能过剩政策影响重工业房地产市场的时效性进行检验,最后将房地产市场区分为住宅市场与非住宅市场进行分类回归。实证结果表明,化解产能过剩政策对重工业城市的房地产需求具有显著的负向影响,住宅市场的影响更为显著,非住宅市场政策效应不明显,政策效果的时效性检验结果显示,政策实施后的第二年效果减弱。最后,从拓展居民购房能力、合理安置受影响职工、优化产业布局方面为重工业城市的发展提出政策建议。
[Abstract]:In the whole country, the supply and demand structure of the real estate market is out of balance, and the problem of stock squeezing is serious, which needs to be solved urgently.At the same time, active resolution of overcapacity is also one of the key economic development under the new normal.In the short run, the reduction of production capacity will inevitably have a negative impact on the economy. For heavy industrial cities, the industries involved in resolving overcapacity policies play the role of pillar industries in urban economic growth.The negative effect of the economic fundamentals of the policy implementation will be amplified in the heavy industrial city, which will reduce the demand of the real estate market in the city, which is not conducive to the digestion of the real estate stock in the heavy industrial city.Therefore, it is positive for the rational development of the real estate industry in heavy industrial cities to discuss that the demand for real estate in heavy industrial cities is affected by the policy of eliminating overcapacity.Looking at the influencing factors of real estate demand, the literature on resolving overcapacity and its policy influence has hardly linked the two factors and analyzed their mutual influence.The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of overcapacity policy on the demand for real estate in heavy industrial cities. It not only combines with the existing economic situation, but also widens the scope of academic research on real estate, which has theoretical value and practical significance.This paper first combs the domestic and foreign literature on the influencing factors of real estate demand, dissolving the production capacity policy and their mutual influence; secondly, on the theoretical side, based on the real estate demand factors and overcapacity related theories.This paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of the overcapacity policy affecting the real estate demand in heavy industrial cities. Furthermore, after describing the process of putting forward the policy of resolving overcapacity in our country, the quantitative method of dividing heavy industrial cities is put forward.Using the PSM tendency score matching method, this paper describes the real estate demand status of heavy industrial cities from the whole and typical perspectives.On the empirical side, based on the short panel data from 2013 to 2015, the first order difference model and the double difference model are constructed to test the impact of overcapacity policies on the demand for real estate in heavy industrial cities.By explaining the detailed definition of variables, the paper tests the timeliness of the heavy industry real estate market by resolving the policy of overcapacity, and finally classifies the real estate market into residential market and non-residential market.The empirical results show that the overcapacity policy has a significant negative impact on the demand for real estate in heavy industrial cities, especially in the housing market, and the policy effect is not obvious in the non-residential market.The second year after the implementation of the policy, the effect weakened.Finally, some policy suggestions are put forward for the development of heavy industrial cities from the aspects of expanding residents' ability to purchase houses, reasonably placing affected staff and workers, and optimizing the industrial layout.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23

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