我国城市化进程中生态损耗、经济增长与福利水平的关系研究——基于Tapio脱钩分析和Granger因果关系检验

发布时间：2018-04-15 00:23

本文选题：城市化 + 可持续发展　；参考：《经济问题探索》2017年03期

【摘要】：随着我国城市化进程的快速推进,资源环境问题已经严重威胁着城市的可持续发展。如何协调好经济、社会和环境三者之间的关系成为城市可持续发展的重要议题。本文将资源消耗和环境污染统称为生态损耗,同时运用脱钩理论和协整理论,对我国改革开放三十多年以来城市化进程中生态损耗、经济增长与福利水平之间的脱钩状态进行实证分析并对三者之间的关系进行格兰杰因果关系检验。研究表明:(1)过去三十多年间,我国资源环境消耗与城市化率成正比,人均生态足迹由1980年的1.15全球公顷上升到2011年的2.49全球公顷,并在2004年人均生态足迹开始超过世界平均水平,而且在80年代初就已经出现了"生态赤字"的现象,经济增长遭遇"生态门槛";(2)生态损耗、经济增长与福利水平之间的脱钩状态总体而言均不太理想:生态损耗与经济增长之间呈现大部分年份的"扩张负脱钩"状态;经济增长与福利水平之间的脱钩状态,近年来也主要呈现"扩张负脱钩"和"扩张连结"状态,经济增长开始遭遇"福利门槛";(3)我国城市化进程中生态损耗、经济增长与福利水平具有同趋性,并且存在着从生态损耗到经济增长、福利水平的单向因果关系。最后根据研究结论为我国的城市化可持续发展提出相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of urbanization in China, the problem of resources and environment has seriously threatened the sustainable development of cities.How to coordinate the relationship among economy, society and environment has become an important issue of urban sustainable development.In this paper, the consumption of resources and environmental pollution are referred to as ecological losses. At the same time, by using decoupling theory and co-integration theory, the ecological loss in the urbanization process of China since the reform and opening up has been carried out for more than 30 years.The decoupling state between economic growth and welfare level is empirically analyzed and Granger causality test is carried out.The study shows that in the past 30 years or so, the consumption of resources and environment in China has been in direct proportion to the rate of urbanization. The per capita ecological footprint has increased from 1.15 global hectares in 1980 to 2.49 global hectares in 2011.And in 2004, the per capita ecological footprint began to exceed the world average, and in the early 1980s there had been a "ecological deficit" phenomenon, and economic growth encountered "ecological threshold") ecological loss.The decoupling state between economic growth and welfare level is generally not ideal: the "expansion negative decoupling" state between ecological loss and economic growth in most years, the decoupling state between economic growth and welfare level,In recent years, it also presents the state of "negative decoupling of expansion" and "linkage of expansion", and economic growth begins to encounter "welfare threshold" (3) the ecological loss in the process of urbanization in China, and the economic growth and welfare level have the same tendency.And there is a one-way causality from ecological loss to economic growth and welfare level.Finally, according to the conclusion of the study, some policy suggestions are put forward for the sustainable development of urbanization in China.
【作者单位】：同济大学;
【分类号】：F224;F299.2

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