中国城镇化对水产品进出口的影响

发布时间：2018-04-17 22:09

本文选题：城镇化 + 水产品　；参考：《宁波大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：水产品是人们生活中重要的食物来源之一,在食物结构中占据关键地位。中国是全球水产品生产和贸易大国,水产品健康持续发展意义重大。但是,中国水产品的资源禀赋系数从2009年的4.15下降到2014年的2.96,下降了28.67%。2015年水产品贸易额和贸易量出现了“双降”现象,表明中国的水产品逐渐缺乏国际竞争力。在这种严峻的形势下,研究水产品进出口的影响因素对水产品贸易的发展至关重要。与此同时,《国家新型城镇化规划(2014-2020年)》文件指出,中国正在面临并将长期面临城镇化的影响,城镇化发展包含了人口迁移和职业的变化、产业结构的变化、土地空间变化等,对农业发展影响显著,而渔业是农业的重要组成部分,即对水产品也产生直接或者间接影响。城镇化对水产品进出口究竟如何影响?目前,还未有学者对该问题进行相关研究。已有研究表明城镇化通过改变要素分配、收入差距等,对贸易的变动趋势有着直接且密切的联系。本文试图从城镇化对生产和消费影响的角度,研究城镇化对进出口的影响。本文的研究思路:第一,梳理城镇化和国际贸易的相关理论,城镇化对贸易影响和水产品影响因素的文献;第二,构建城镇化对水产品进出口影响的理论框架;第三,阐述城镇化和水产品进出口现状及特征;第四,采用回归模型实证检验城镇化对水产品进出口规模和结构的影响;第五,根据理论文献、描述统计以及实证分析的结论,提出有针对性的对策建议。本文得到以下结论:第一,城镇化是影响中国经济发展的重要因素且将长期影响中国的经济、社会、人口、环境等发展;第二,中国仍然是水产品生产和贸易大国,在全球水产品市场中占据重要位置;第三,城镇化对水产品贸易规模和贸易结构均产生影响。城镇化对水产品进出口规模有正向影响,并且当其偏离长期均衡会引起水产品进出口的波动。城镇化对水产品进出口结构影响不同,对初级水产品出口和深加工水产品进口具有负向影响,对初级水产品进口和深加工水产品出口具有正向影响。因此,加快城镇化建设,对水产品贸易的健康持续发展具有重要作用和意义。
[Abstract]:Aquatic products are one of the most important food sources in people's life and play a key role in food structure.China is the world aquatic product production and trade big country, aquatic product healthy and sustainable development significance.However, the resource endowment coefficient of China's aquatic products declined from 4.15 in 2009 to 2.96 in 2014, and the volume of aquatic product trade and trade decreased 28.67.2015, indicating that China's aquatic products gradually lack international competitiveness.Under such a severe situation, it is very important to study the influence factors of aquatic product import and export to the development of aquatic product trade.At the same time, the document "National New urbanization Plan 2014-2020" points out that China is facing and will face the impact of urbanization for a long time.urbanization development includes changes in population migration and occupation, changes in industrial structure, changes in land and space, and so on.Fishery is an important part of agriculture, which has direct or indirect effects on aquatic products.How does urbanization affect the import and export of aquatic products?At present, there are no scholars on the issue of related research.Some studies have shown that urbanization has a direct and close relationship with the trend of trade by changing the distribution of factors and income gap.This paper attempts to study the impact of urbanization on import and export from the perspective of urbanization on production and consumption.The research ideas of this paper are as follows: first, combing the relevant theories of urbanization and international trade, literature on the impact of urbanization on trade and aquatic products; second, constructing the theoretical framework of urbanization on the import and export of aquatic products; third,The current situation and characteristics of urbanization and aquatic product import and export are expounded. Fourthly, the impact of urbanization on the scale and structure of aquatic product import and export is empirically tested by using regression model. Fifth, according to the theoretical literature, the conclusion of statistics and empirical analysis is described.Some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.The conclusions are as follows: first, urbanization is an important factor affecting China's economic development and will affect China's economic, social, population and environmental development for a long time; second, China is still a large country producing and trading aquatic products.It plays an important role in the global aquatic product market. Thirdly, urbanization has an impact on the scale and structure of aquatic product trade.Urbanization has a positive effect on the scale of aquatic product import and export, and when it deviates from the long term equilibrium, it will cause the fluctuation of aquatic product import and export.Urbanization has different effects on the import and export structure of aquatic products. It has a negative effect on the export of primary aquatic products and imports of deep processed aquatic products, and a positive impact on the import of primary aquatic products and the export of deep processed aquatic products.Therefore, speeding up the construction of urbanization plays an important role and significance in the healthy and sustainable development of aquatic products trade.
【学位授予单位】：宁波大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.21;F323.7;F752.6

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