人口红利、经济增长与工资水平——基于动态面板数据的实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-23 07:00

  本文选题：工资水平 + 人口红利　； 参考：《现代管理科学》2017年11期

【摘要】：文章以我国省际1995年-2015年的面板数据为样本建立动态面板模型,采用差分GMM和系统GMM两种方法对模型进行估计,以此分析中国经济增长的实践经验。研究结果表明:(1)我国工资水平与经济增长之间存在显著负相关关系;(2)实际利率水平与工资水平存在正向关系,但参数估计值较小。人民币汇率的升值降低了劳动者的平均工资水平;(3)压低劳动力成本的方式来换取经济的高速增长是我国经济发展的阶段性表现。文章认为,我国目前处于"低工资"向"高工资"转变的过渡时期。消费主导经济的发展模式将是未来政策的主要导向。
[Abstract]:Based on the panel data from 1995 to 2015, a dynamic panel model is established in this paper. Two methods, differential GMM and systematic GMM, are used to estimate the model so as to analyze the practical experience of China's economic growth. The results show that there is a significant negative correlation between wage level and economic growth in China. (2) there is a positive relationship between real interest rate level and wage level, but the parameter estimate is small. The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate reduces the average wage level of the laborer and reduces the labor cost in exchange for the rapid economic growth which is the stage performance of China's economic development. The article holds that our country is in the transition period of "low wage" to "high wage". The development pattern of consumption leading economy will be the main direction of future policy.
【作者单位】： 对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院;
【分类号】：C924.2;F124;F249.24
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本文编号：1790927