我国长江三角洲地区商品房长期性质的实证研究——基于静态面板数据

发布时间：2018-04-28 23:29

本文选题：长江三角洲 + 商品性质　；参考：《科技和产业》2017年03期

【摘要】：首次从商品房性质的角度,研究其性质对商品房价格的影响。首先,通过面板协整检验证明商品房屋销售面积、人均可支配收入、商品房平均销售价格、利率之间存在长期均衡关系,并以变系数固定效应模型构建了长期需求模型。其次,利用长江三角洲地区的面板数据及长期需求模型得出了长江三角洲地区商品房的性质。实证结果表明:在长期中,江苏省的商品房为正常商品,上海市商品房是低档商品,浙江省的商品房是吉芬商品。通过实证结果,针对上海市、浙江省、江苏省具有不同性质的商品房给出了具体建议措施如下:限购、限购同时提高居民的可支配收入、增加投资渠道及政府给予市民合理商品房价格预期的信号。研究结果对房地产市场目前高房价状态到政府预期的状态起到更好的调节作用。
[Abstract]:It is the first time to study the influence of the nature of commercial housing on the price of commercial housing from the point of view of the nature of commercial housing. First of all, the panel cointegration test proves that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among the area of commercial housing sales, the per capita disposable income, the average selling price of commercial housing, and the interest rate, and the long-term demand model is constructed by the fixed effect model of variable coefficient. Secondly, the properties of commercial housing in Yangtze River Delta are obtained by using panel data and long term demand model. The empirical results show that in the long run, commercial housing in Jiangsu Province is a normal commodity, commercial housing in Shanghai is a low-grade commodity, and commercial housing in Zhejiang Province is a commodity in Jifen. Based on the empirical results, this paper puts forward some specific suggestions for commercial housing in Shanghai, Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces as follows: limiting purchase, limiting purchase and increasing the disposable income of residents. Increase investment channels and the government to give the public reasonable price expectations of commercial housing signals. The results of the study play a better role in regulating the current high housing price state of the real estate market to the expected state of the government.
【作者单位】：上海理工大学管理学院;
【分类号】：F299.23

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