中国宏观经济预期管理研究

发布时间：2018-04-29 05:23

  本文选题：预期管理 + 信息冲击　； 参考：《辽宁大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：预期管理作为宏观调控理论与实践的创新发展,通过有效引导、协调和稳定社会预期,去追求经济政策正效用最大化、副作用最小化的效果组合。预期管理源起于上世纪五十年代、成型于本世纪之初,在近年来各经济体应对美国“次贷危机”引发的全球经济衰退与持续疲弱的宏观调控实践中大显身手,成为以“量化宽松、前瞻性指引”为代表的“非常规”经济政策的直接理论支持。我国政府因时应势,根据中国经济发展现实与特点,推出了中国版的“预期管理”举措。初步形成了以“区间调控、定向调控和相机调控”为内涵的宏观经济“区间管理”的宏观调控新理念,升华了前瞻性指引的目标层面；在通过货币政策实现预期管理的实践中,立足本国实际,在积极推进利率走廊机制建设的基础上,践行前瞻性指引,提升预期管理效果；在注重通过货币政策实现预期管理的同时,积极扩大预期管理覆盖领域,将财政政策、产业政策、区域经济政策纷纷纳入预期管理范畴。本文在对预期、预期理论和预期管理货币政策进行文献回顾的基础上,围绕宏观经济预期管理对相关理论展开了系统研究,并对预期管理的理论模型、测度指标与实际测度进行了初步探讨。在进一步考察中国宏观调控预期管理历史实践的基础上,对中国宏观调控与预期管理结合后的探索与发展进行了思考。在构建嵌入预期冲击的新凯恩斯主义动态随机一般均衡模型后,利用1999年至2015年的中国宏观经济数据对预期冲击与宏观经济波动展开了实证分析。在对多类型预期冲击影响宏观经济波动的传导机制进行分析的基础上,得出整体预期冲击是影响宏观经济波动的重要因素,其可以对中国宏观经济波动提供60%以上的解释。从而对实施预期管理的必要性、可能性给出了回应,并进一步将货币政策预期管理进行模型内生化设定,通过数值模拟得出了预期管理有效性的结论。为了对预期管理建设提供可借鉴经验,本文以货币政策前瞻性指引这一主要实现预期管理的核心工具出发,在对前瞻性指引的实施背景、基本理论和政策进行梳理基础上,对美国、日本、欧盟等国的前瞻性实践进行了系统比较研究,总结了国外实施预期管理的经验与启发。最后,对我国实施预期管理提出了较全面系统化的政策建议。
[Abstract]:As an innovative development of macro-control theory and practice, expectation management is a combination of effective guidance, coordination and stabilization of social expectations to maximize the positive utility of economic policies and minimize side effects. The expected management originated in the 1950s and took shape at the beginning of this century. It has played an important role in the global economic recession and the continued weakness of macro-control practices caused by the "subprime mortgage crisis" in the United States in recent years. It has become the direct theoretical support of unconventional economic policies represented by quantitative easing and forward-looking guidance. According to the reality and characteristics of China's economic development, our government has put forward the Chinese version of "anticipatory management". A new macro-control concept of "interval management" with the connotation of "interval regulation, directional control and camera control" has been formed, which sublimates the target level of forward-looking guidance, and in the practice of realizing expected management through monetary policy, Based on the reality of our country, on the basis of actively promoting the construction of interest rate corridor mechanism, we should carry out forward-looking guidance to improve the effect of expected management, and at the same time, we should actively expand the coverage of expected management while focusing on the implementation of expected management through monetary policy. Financial policy, industrial policy, regional economic policy have been brought into the scope of expected management. On the basis of literature review of expectation, expectation theory and expected management monetary policy, this paper systematically studies the related theories around macroeconomic expectation management, and makes a theoretical model of expectation management. The measurement index and the actual measure are preliminarily discussed. On the basis of further investigation of the historical practice of China's macroeconomic regulation and control expectation management, this paper discusses the exploration and development of the combination of macro control and expectation management in China. After constructing a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model embedded in expected shocks, the empirical analysis of expected shocks and macroeconomic fluctuations is carried out using Chinese macroeconomic data from 1999 to 2015. Based on the analysis of the transmission mechanism of the impact of multiple types of expected shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations, it is concluded that the overall expected impact is an important factor affecting macroeconomic fluctuations, which can provide more than 60% explanation for macroeconomic fluctuations in China. Therefore, the necessity and possibility of implementing the expected management are responded, and the model of the expected management of monetary policy is further set up, and the conclusion of the effectiveness of the expected management is obtained by numerical simulation. In order to provide experience for the construction of prospective management, this paper starts from the monetary policy forward-looking guidance, which is the core tool to realize the prospective management, on the basis of combing the implementation background, basic theory and policy of the forward-looking guidance. This paper makes a systematic comparative study on the prospective practice of the United States, Japan and the European Union, and summarizes the experience and inspiration of implementing prospective management in foreign countries. Finally, the paper puts forward more comprehensive and systematic policy recommendations for the implementation of prospective management in China.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F201
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本文编号：1818589