城镇化背景下推进住宅产业化发展研究

发布时间：2018-05-03 10:25

本文选题：城镇化 + 住宅产业化　；参考：《吉林建筑大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,我国城镇化迅猛发展,城镇人口逐年攀升,以这样的发展趋势进行预测,未来几年,我国将迈入城镇化发展的快车道。城市的扩容和人口的增加将对住房产生大量的需求,这将不仅是为房地产业的蓬勃发展带来的巨大契机,更是其需要经历的一次严峻的挑战,因为,传统房地产业已经不能满足日益发展的社会需求,必须转变经济发展方式,考虑城市资源与环境的承载力,提高生产效率,提高发展质量,与生态文明和两型社会的建设相结合,促进建筑产业的转型升级,住宅产业化是必然的选择。然而,我国住宅产业化发展至今仍处于初级阶段,具有诸多的发展瓶颈,例如,产业化住宅的建造成本一直居高不下、开发商开发意愿低、消费者缺乏住宅产业化意识、购买意愿低的情况下无法形成一定的市场需求度,未能形成规模经济和完整的产业链等,这些因素均导致了我国住宅产业化发展缓慢,甚至停滞不前。而住宅产业化对于建筑业实为革命性转折,它不仅可以缩短建设周期,并且可以大大提升住宅的质量和性能,同时只产生较少的建筑垃圾,低碳环保节能。为了我国建造水平的提高,在城镇化进程突飞猛进的背景下对如何快速、高效的推动住宅产业化进行研究探讨是非常有必要的。住宅产业是一项复杂的系统工程,其规模化发展受政策、经济、市场、技术等诸多因素的影响,各类因素之间相互作用,仅从某一方面不能全面剖析到系统的发展瓶颈。本文借助系统动力学的反馈理论,结合住宅产业化市场、城市经济等影响其发展的关键因素,构建了推进我国住宅产业化发展的系统动力学模型,对其进行分析并绘制因果关系图,之后识别各变量的属性绘制系统流图,建立模型方程,最后利用Vensim软件对住宅产业化系统进行模拟,识别其内部构成和相互作用原理,理顺内部关系,识别问题根源,抓关键、略次要,提出相应的政策建议,以促进住宅产业化市场的快速、健康、可持续、规模化的发展
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of urbanization in China, the urban population is rising year by year. With this trend of development, China will enter the fast lane of urbanization in the next few years. The expansion of the city and the increase of the population will have a large demand for housing, which will not only bring a great opportunity for the booming development of the real estate industry, but also a severe challenge to the real estate industry, because, The traditional real estate industry can no longer meet the growing social needs. It is necessary to change the mode of economic development, consider the bearing capacity of urban resources and environment, improve production efficiency and improve the quality of development. With the combination of ecological civilization and the construction of two-type society to promote the transformation and upgrading of the construction industry housing industrialization is the inevitable choice. However, the development of housing industrialization in our country is still in the primary stage, which has many bottlenecks. For example, the construction cost of industrial housing has been high, developers have low willingness to develop, and consumers lack the awareness of housing industrialization. Under the condition of low willingness to purchase, it is impossible to form a certain degree of market demand, fail to form a scale economy and a complete industrial chain, all of these factors lead to the slow development or even stagnation of housing industrialization in China. Housing industrialization is a revolutionary turning point for the construction industry, it can not only shorten the construction cycle, but also greatly improve the quality and performance of housing, at the same time, only produce less construction waste, low carbon environmental protection and energy saving. In order to improve the construction level of our country, it is very necessary to study how to promote the housing industrialization quickly and efficiently under the background of the rapid development of urbanization. Housing industry is a complex system engineering, its large-scale development is affected by many factors, such as policy, economy, market, technology and so on. Based on the feedback theory of system dynamics and the key factors affecting the development of housing industrialization market and urban economy, this paper constructs a system dynamics model to promote the development of housing industrialization in China. Analyzing and drawing causality diagram, then identifying the attributes of each variable to draw the system flow diagram, establish the model equation, finally use Vensim software to simulate the housing industrialization system, identify its internal composition and interaction principle. Straighten out the internal relations, identify the root causes of the problem, grasp the key, slightly secondary, put forward the corresponding policy recommendations, in order to promote the rapid, healthy, sustainable and large-scale development of the housing industrialization market.
【学位授予单位】：吉林建筑大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.21;F299.23

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