应急物资的混合储备决策研究

发布时间：2018-05-03 23:07

本文选题：应急物资 + 混合储备　；参考：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：自然灾害多发造成巨大损失,合理储备救灾应急物资是降低损失的有效途径,但储备本身也耗费成本;目前普遍采用的实物储备成本较高,储备的物资品种和数量有限,无法有效满足救灾需求,采用能力储备可有效扩大储备规模,且成本相对较低,但应急时效性和保障水平不如实物储备;对于需求量大的重要物资,国家提倡将实物储备和能力储备混合使用,可取长补短,充分发挥应急储备的重要作用。储备的目的在于以小成本防范大损失,在满足需求的前提下,应该尽量将储备成本降到最低。要做到这点,就需要制定合理的储备策略,包括储备方式及储备规模决策。在此背景下,本文针对保质期较长、通用性强、适宜储备的救灾专用物资,结合我国应急储备现状,综合考虑关键影响因素,研究在实物储备和生产能力储备相结合的混合储备模式下,使成本最小化并满足应急时效性和需求保障水平要求的储备规模及不同储备方式的储备量分配决策问题。本文首先分析应急储备的现状,明确了混合储备方式的特点、适用范围和实现途径;然后分析混合储备模式下影响储备决策的关键因素,如需求、储备成本、保障水平、时效性等;接着研究需求确定和需求随机两种情况下成本、应急时效及保障水平的组成和度量,并假设区域内只有一家供应商的前提下,以响应时间、保障能力为约束,以应急物资供应链总成本最小化为目标,分别建立了应急物资混合储备模式下的储备量分配决策模型;最后引入地震灾害的算例,验证了两个模型的可行性和有效性,并对需求、补贴、采购价格等影响因素做了敏感性分析。计算结果显示在满足需求和时间要求的前提下,通过设置合理的储备结构,采用混合储备比同等数量的纯实物储备节约成本,此外政府可通过调节价格等因素来优化储备结构。总的来看,本文用定量分析的方法研究了应急物资混合储备的储备量决策问题,丰富了应急物资储备的理论体系,同时也对解决目前应急物资储备存在的问题提供了一种思路。
[Abstract]:Natural disasters frequently cause huge losses, reasonable storage of emergency materials for disaster relief is an effective way to reduce losses, but reserves themselves also consume costs. At present, the cost of physical reserves is relatively high, and the variety and quantity of materials stored are limited. Unable to effectively meet disaster relief needs, the capacity reserve can effectively expand the size of the reserve, and the cost is relatively low, but the emergency timeliness and the level of protection are not as good as the physical reserve. The state advocates the mixed use of physical reserves and capacity reserves, which can complement each other and give full play to the important role of emergency reserves. The purpose of reserve is to prevent large losses with small cost, and the reserve cost should be reduced to the minimum under the premise of satisfying demand. To achieve this, we need to develop a reasonable reserve strategy, including reserve mode and size decision. Under this background, this paper considers the key influencing factors synthetically according to the current situation of emergency reserve in our country, aiming at the special relief materials with long shelf life, strong generality and suitable reserve. In this paper, under the mixed reserve mode of combining physical reserve with productive capacity reserve, the problem of reserve size and reserve allocation decision of different reserve modes is studied, which minimizes the cost and meets the requirements of emergency timeliness and demand support level. This paper first analyzes the current situation of emergency reserve, defines the characteristics, applicable scope and realization of mixed reserve mode, and then analyzes the key factors influencing reserve decision-making under the mixed reserve mode, such as demand, reserve cost, security level, etc. Then we study the composition and measurement of cost, emergency effectiveness and security level under the condition of demand determination and demand randomness, and assume that there is only one supplier in the region, which is constrained by response time and support ability. Aiming at minimizing the total cost of emergency material supply chain, the reserve allocation decision models under the mixed reserve model of emergency materials are established, and the feasibility and validity of the two models are verified by introducing the earthquake disaster example. And to demand, subsidy, purchase price and other factors for sensitivity analysis. The calculation results show that under the premise of satisfying the demand and time requirement, by setting up a reasonable reserve structure, the mixed reserve can save the cost compared with the pure physical reserve of the same quantity. In addition, the government can optimize the reserve structure by adjusting the price and other factors. In general, this paper studies the problem of reserve quantity decision of emergency material mixed reserve by quantitative analysis method, enriches the theoretical system of emergency material reserve, and provides a way of thinking to solve the problems existing in emergency material reserve at present.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F251

【参考文献】