生态文明时空演变特征与影响因素——以广东省为例

发布时间：2018-05-05 19:21

本文选题：生态文明 + 时空演变　；参考：《华东经济管理》2017年11期

【摘要】：文章在已有的生态文明综合评价指标体系基础上,运用因子分析、马尔科夫链和面板数据回归分析方法,在GIS技术支持下,基于广东21个地级市2000年、2004年、2008年、2012年4个时间断面数据,分析了生态文明综合水平的时空格局演变及其影响因素。研究结果表明:从时序格局上看,2000-2004年、2004-2008年、2008-2012年三时期时序演变差距不断扩大,2000-2004年和2004-2008年两个时期更为显著,数据表明高等水平地级市转移速度低于低等水平地级市,主要转移趋势是在中等和低等水平之间;从空间分布上看,生态文明发展状况的高等和较高水平地级市多位于珠三角地区,而中等和低等水平地级市多位于粤东、粤西和粤北;生态文明时空演变的影响因素与常住人口数、第二产业增加值、第三产业增加值正相关,与第一产业增加值负相关。经济增长和居民消费量变动虽然会有一定的影响,但结果并不显著。
[Abstract]:Based on the existing comprehensive evaluation index system of ecological civilization, this paper uses factor analysis, Markov chain and panel data regression analysis method, with the support of GIS technology. Based on four time section data of 21 prefectural cities in Guangdong in 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012, the temporal and spatial pattern evolution of ecological civilization comprehensive level and its influencing factors were analyzed. The results show that: from the point of view of temporal pattern, the time series evolution gap between 2000-2004 and 2008-2012 is increasing. The data show that the transfer rate of higher level prefecture-level cities is lower than that of lower-level prefecture-level cities. The main transfer trend is between the middle level and the low level, from the spatial distribution point of view, the higher and higher level cities of ecological civilization development are mostly located in the Pearl River Delta region, while the middle and low level prefectural cities are mostly located in the east of Guangdong, the west of Guangdong and the north of Guangdong. The influencing factors of the space-time evolution of ecological civilization are positively correlated with the number of resident population, the added value of the secondary industry, the added value of the tertiary industry, and the negative correlation with the added value of the primary industry. Economic growth and changes in household consumption will have a certain impact, but the results are not significant.
【作者单位】：广东工业大学管理学院;华南理工大学经济与贸易学院;
【基金】：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(15JZD020) 国家自然科学基金项目(71402055) 广东省高等学校优秀青年教师培养计划项目(YQ2015060) 广东省教育厅人文社会科学项目(2012WYM_0010;2013WYXM0032)
【分类号】：F205

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