林业PPP项目物有所值验证的研究

发布时间：2018-05-10 18:43

本文选题：广西林业 + 七坡林场　；参考：《中南林业科技大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着广西林业的快速发展,与林业相关的项目日渐增多,成为了广西财政收入主要来源之一,同时,广西政府也大力发展林业建设,不断提供优越的条件促进林业项目的开展,因此为了尽快推动广西林业项目投资的发展,将社会资本引入基础设施投资林业领域的PPP(Public-Private-Partnership)模式成为了一个新兴的林业投资项目。然而,PPP模式只是提供基础设施产品或服务的选项之一,政府不能主观偏好某一采购模式或否定某一模式,应当有科学的可量化的依据来判断该模式是否物有所值(Value for Money,简称VFM)。本文的主要目的是在深入了解VFM基本理论的基础上,结合广西国有七坡林场PPP项目的具体特点,构建专门针对七坡林场PPP项目的VFM定量评价模型。首先,分析了 PPP项目VFM定量评价的基本理论及实践,在总结分析我国PPP项目的基本运作模式及主要特性的基础上,提出了七坡林场PPP项目VFM定量评价的框架模型。然后提出了该框架模型中的两大组成部分---公共部门比较值(PSC)、PPP值(影子报价PPP值和实际报价PPP值两个层次)的组成及计算模型,从而构成了完整的广西林业PPP项目VFM定量评价模型。另外,VFM定量评价通常受到很多因素的影响,本文对影响评价结果的最为关键的几个因素进行了具体分析:折现率的确定及风险分析。对于折现率的确定,分析了国外VFM定量评价中常用的折现率的特点,并结合七坡林场PPP项目特点,选择无风险利率作为折现率;风险分析部分则通过文献调查及WBS—RBS法识别出七坡林场PPP项目中存在的32种风险因素,引入集值统计法进行风险的量化,并提出了七坡林场PPP项目的风险分担原则作为风险分担的理论依据。最后,将新构建的七坡林场PPP项目VFM定量评价模型应用于七坡森林公园项目具体环境中,根据七坡森林公园项目的具体资料与数据进行实证研究,验证了构建的VFM定量评价模型的适用性及可行性,为广西林业项目PPP模式的选择提供了科学的可量化依据。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of forestry in Guangxi, forestry related projects are increasing day by day and become one of the main sources of fiscal revenue in Guangxi. At the same time, the Guangxi government has also vigorously developed forestry construction and provided favorable conditions to promote the development of forestry projects. Therefore, in order to promote the development of forestry project investment in Guangxi as soon as possible, the PPPPic-Private-Partnership-based model of introducing social capital into the field of infrastructure investment in forestry has become a new forestry investment project. However, the PPP model is only one of the options for providing infrastructure products or services. The government should not be subjective in favor of a certain procurement model or negate a certain model, and there should be a scientific and quantifiable basis to determine whether the model is worth the value of value for money. The main purpose of this paper is to establish a VFM quantitative evaluation model for the PPP project of Qipo Forest Farm in Guangxi, on the basis of deeply understanding the basic theory of VFM and combining with the specific characteristics of the PPP project in Qipo Forest Farm of Guangxi. Firstly, the basic theory and practice of VFM quantitative evaluation of PPP project are analyzed. Based on the summary and analysis of the basic operation mode and main characteristics of PPP project in China, the frame model of VFM quantitative evaluation for PPP project in Qipo Forest Farm is put forward. Then, the composition and calculation model of the two major components of the framework model, the public sector comparison value and the PSC-PPP value (shadow PPP value and actual PPP value) are proposed. Thus a complete quantitative evaluation model of Guangxi forestry PPP project VFM is constructed. In addition, the quantitative evaluation of VFM is usually affected by many factors. This paper makes a concrete analysis of the most important factors affecting the evaluation results: the determination of discount rate and risk analysis. For the determination of discount rate, this paper analyzes the characteristics of discount rate commonly used in quantitative evaluation of VFM abroad, and selects risk-free interest rate as discount rate according to the characteristics of PPP project in Qipo Forest Farm. In the part of risk analysis, 32 kinds of risk factors in PPP project of Qipo Forest Farm are identified by literature survey and WBS-RBS method. The risk sharing principle of PPP project in Qipo Forest Farm is put forward as the theoretical basis of risk sharing. Finally, the newly constructed VFM quantitative evaluation model of PPP project in Qipo Forest Farm is applied to the specific environment of Qipo Forest Park Project, and the empirical study is carried out according to the specific data and data of Qipo Forest Park Project. The applicability and feasibility of the VFM quantitative evaluation model were verified, which provided a scientific and quantifiable basis for the selection of PPP model for Guangxi forestry project.
【学位授予单位】：中南林业科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F283;F326.27

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