房价对我国家庭规模的影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-15 22:16

本文选题：房价上涨 + 家庭规模　；参考：《湘潭大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：自1998年我国实施住房制度改革以来,我国房价便开始快速上涨。由于房价增长的速度过快,购房难已经成为大众关注的热点话题之一。购置新房与培育下一代均是家庭的两项重大支出,受预算约束的影响,住房支出的增加不可避免地影响着家庭的生育决策,导致一些家庭不敢生、少生或者晚育,从而降低了生育率,而家庭规模小型化的主要原因之一就是生育率的下降。基于此,本文提出了一个合理的猜测:高房价导致家庭规模小型化。此猜测是否合理?这正是本文所要讨论的。基于理论分析,本文利用我国1999-2014年省级面板数据研究了房价对家庭规模的影响。在实证分析中,本文使用静态面板模型(固定效应模型、随机效应模型)、动态面板模型(系统GMM模型)以及OLS模型等来考察房价对家庭规模的影响。为了使回归结果更具有说服力,本文在以上实证分析的基础上还进行了以下稳健性检验:第一,为了解决房价与家庭规模之间可能存在的反向因果关系、样本选择性偏误等内生性问题,本文以上一年度的人均土地出让面积和人均土地出让额作为房价的工具变量;第二,由于本文猜想房价可能通过影响出生率来影响家庭规模,在此又进行了房价如何影响出生率的实证分析;第三,在上述宏观数据实证分析的基础上,本文还利用2012年和2013年中国综合社会调查(CGSS)数据,从微观个人层面探讨了房价对家庭规模的影响。通过理论以及实证的分析,本文得出以下主要结论:(1)房价上涨是造成家庭规模小型化的一个重要因素;(2)房价对不同地区家庭规模的影响呈现异质性:相较于中西部地区,东部地区的家庭规模受房价的影响作用更甚。这可能是因为相对于中西部地区,东部地区经济更加发达,房价也比较高,从而购房负担更加沉重;(3)房价与出生率之间存在负相关关系,而且出生率与家庭规模呈正相关关系,这些均符合我们的猜测;(4)家庭经济状况的改善可以减弱房价对家庭规模的影响。
[Abstract]:Since 1998, China has implemented housing system reform, China's housing prices began to rise rapidly. Due to the rapid growth of house prices, the difficulty of buying a house has become one of the hot topics concerned by the public. The purchase of new homes and the cultivation of the next generation are two major expenditures of the family. Due to budgetary constraints, the increase in housing expenditure inevitably affects the family's reproductive decisions, leading some families not to have children, to have fewer children or to have children later. This reduces the fertility rate, and one of the main reasons for the miniaturization of family size is the decline in fertility. Based on this, this paper puts forward a reasonable guess: high house prices lead to the family size miniaturization. Is this speculation reasonable? This is exactly what this article will discuss. Based on theoretical analysis, this paper studies the impact of house prices on household size using provincial panel data from 1999 to 2014. In the empirical analysis, we use static panel model (fixed effect model, stochastic effect model), dynamic panel model (system GMM model) and OLS model to investigate the impact of house prices on household size. In order to make the regression results more convincing, this paper also carries out the following robust tests on the basis of the above empirical analysis: first, in order to solve the possible negative causal relationship between house prices and family size, Sample selectivity bias and other endogenous problems, the per capita land transfer area and per capita land transfer amount of the previous year as a tool variable of house prices; second, because this paper hypothesized that housing prices may affect the family size through the birth rate. An empirical analysis of how house prices affect the birth rate is made. Thirdly, based on the above macro-data empirical analysis, this paper also makes use of the 2012 and 2013 China Comprehensive Social Survey (CGSS) data. This paper discusses the impact of house price on family size from the micro-personal level. Through theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper draws the following main conclusions: (1) the rise of house prices is an important factor contributing to the miniaturization of household size. (2) the influence of house prices on the size of households in different regions is heterogeneity: compared with the central and western regions, The size of households in the east is more affected by housing prices. This may be because compared with the central and western regions, the eastern region has a more developed economy and higher housing prices. As a result, there is a negative correlation between house prices and birth rates, and there is a positive correlation between birth rates and family size. These are in line with our speculation that improved household economic conditions can reduce the impact of house prices on household size.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23

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