长三角城市群能源效率的时空分异及影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-05-18 02:32

本文选题：能源效率 + 时空分异　；参考：《华东师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：在全球性金融、环境和能源等危机的大背景下,"全球绿色新政及绿色经济计划"的实施和"G20峰会"的召开,使能效议题真正进入了全球视野。目前,中国能源效率整体偏低、能源消费结构不合理等传统能源问题日益凸显,成为约束中国经济绿色和低碳发展的最大障碍。而长三角城市群作为中国城市群的典型代表,经济发展长期严重依赖传统能源、能源效率低下、能源供需矛盾尖锐都造成长三角城市群未来可持续发展堪忧的瓶颈。本文通过厘清能源效率内涵、梳理能源效率相关研究进展,依据区域空间结构理论和能源—经济—环境3E系统等理论,运用非期望产出SBM模型(与传统的DEA-C2R对比),对长三角城市群26个城市的能源效率进行全面测度,从地理视角探讨其时空分异特征,并运用Tobit模型分析各相关因子对长三角城市群能源效率的影响和作用,以期为长三角能源效率水平的提升、以及长三角城市群整体能源效率的协调发展提供可资参考的建议。通过对长三角城市群能源效率的时空分异及影响因素进行分析,本文得到以下能源效率的模型运用与时空分异等若干结论:(1)与传统DEA-C2R模型相比,充分考虑环境因子的非期望产出SBM模型所得结果更全面、更符合实际状况;(2)从时间尺度来看,长三角城市群26个城市在2005-2014年间能源效率总体呈不断提升态势,但城市间能源效率差异随着时间的推移呈现波动扩大状态;(3)从空间尺度来看,长三角城市群城市能源效率从2005年和2008年的以上海、苏州为中心的极核式分布格局演变成为2011年和2014年的"南北普遍偏高、中部塌陷"的马鞍式分布格局,说明在整个区域内,能源效率演变态势由单中心向多中心转变;长三角城市群在2005到2014年间,城市年均能源效率初步形成"以能源中效区大面积分布为主导,低效区偏居西南一隅,能源较高效区分布于东部、南部"的空间分布格局。本文还重点探讨了长三角城市群能源效率的影响因素,结果表明,经济发展水平和产业结构对长三角城市群能源效率提升具有至关重要的推动作用,资本深化和对外开放程度的加深不利于长三角城市群能源效率的改善。基于以上研究结果,本文提出五点建议:(1)因势利导地繁荣和发展城市经济,实现"发展提效";(2)因地制宜地调整和优化产业结构,实现"转型提效";(3)协同并进地优化对外贸易结构,实现"开放提效";(4)多措并举地解决城市群中部区域能效低位问题,实现"分区提效";(5)循序渐进地健全城市群协调发展机制,实现"协同提效"。本文共分为六个章节:第一章主要阐述本文的研究背景和意义、研究内容和思路框架、研究方法及研究特色;第二章重点厘清能源效率内涵,梳理相关的理论基础和国内外研究进展,并针对现有文献研究取向提出本文的研究视角;第三章在简要概括长三角城市群这一研究范畴及其整体能源—经济—环境现状基础上,基于非期望产出SBM模型和传统的DEA-C2R模型的对比分析,对长三角城市群能源效率进行测度;第四章从时间和空间角度对长三角城市群2005-2014年城市能源效率进行分析,探讨其时空分异特征;第五章运用Tobit模型,定量分析各相关因子对长三角城市群能源效率的影响和作用;第六章为结论、政策建议及进一步的思考。
[Abstract]:In the context of global financial, environmental and energy crises, the implementation of the "global green new deal and green economic plan" and the "G20 summit" have made the energy efficiency issues really into the global vision. At present, China's energy efficiency is on the low side, the energy consumption structure is not reasonable and other traditional energy problems become increasingly prominent, and it has become a constraint on the Chinese economy. As the typical representative of green and low-carbon development, the Yangtze River Delta city group is a typical representative of the Chinese urban agglomeration. The economic development depends on the traditional energy for a long time. The energy efficiency is low and the contradiction of energy supply and demand is sharp. This article clarifies energy efficiency and combs energy efficiency by clarifying the connotation of energy efficiency. Based on the theory of regional spatial structure and the theory of energy economic environment 3E system and other theories, using the undesired output SBM model (compared with the traditional DEA-C2R), the energy efficiency of the 26 cities in the Yangtze River Delta city group is comprehensively measured, and the spatial and temporal characteristics of the urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta are discussed from the geographical perspective, and the correlation of each correlation is analyzed with the Tobit model. The effect of factors on the energy efficiency of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is expected to provide a reference for the promotion of energy efficiency in the Yangtze River Delta and the coordinated development of the overall energy efficiency of the urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta. Compared with the traditional DEA-C2R model, the results of the unexpected output SBM model, which fully consider the environmental factors, are more comprehensive and more in line with the actual situation compared with the traditional DEA-C2R model. (2) from the time scale, the energy efficiency of the 26 cities of the Yangtze River Delta city group in the period of 2005-2014 years has been constantly improving, but the city is in the city. The difference of energy efficiency varies with time; (3) from the spatial scale, the urban energy efficiency of the urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta has evolved from the polar core distribution pattern centered on Shanghai and Suzhou in 2005 and 2008 as the saddle type distribution pattern of "the north and South high, the central collapse" in 2011 and 2014. In the whole region, the evolution trend of energy efficiency is changed from single center to multi center. In the period of 2005 to 2014, the annual average energy efficiency of urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta has initially formed the spatial distribution pattern of "large area distribution of energy medium effect area, low efficiency zone in Southwest corner, more energy efficient area distributed in the East and South". The influence factors of the energy efficiency of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration are discussed. The results show that the economic development level and the industrial structure have a vital role in promoting the energy efficiency of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration. The deepening of capital and the deepening of the opening to the outside world are not conducive to the improvement of the energy efficiency of the urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta. Based on the above research results, this paper proposes Five suggestions: (1) to promote the prosperity and development of the urban economy in the light of the situation, and to realize the "development efficiency"; (2) adjust and optimize the industrial structure in the light of local conditions and achieve "the effect of transformation"; (3) optimize the structure of the foreign trade and realize the "open effect" in cooperation and advance, and (4) to solve the problem of low energy efficiency in the central region of the urban agglomeration and realize the "partition efficiency"; (5) Step by step to improve the coordinated development mechanism of urban agglomeration and achieve synergy. This article is divided into six chapters. The first chapter mainly expounds the background and significance of the research, the content and thinking framework, the research methods and the research characteristics; the second chapter focuses on the definition of energy efficiency, combing the relevant theoretical basis and the research progress at home and abroad, In the third chapter, based on a brief summary of the research category and the overall energy economic environment status of the Yangtze River Delta city group, the third chapter measures the energy efficiency of the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration Based on the comparison and analysis of the unexpected output model and the traditional DEA-C2R model; and the fourth chapter is the analysis of the energy efficiency of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration. From the point of view of time and space, the energy efficiency of urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta for 2005-2014 years is analyzed and its spatial and temporal characteristics are discussed. The fifth chapter uses the Tobit model to quantitatively analyze the influence and effect of the relevant factors on the energy efficiency of the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration; the sixth chapter is the conclusion, the policy suggestion and the further thinking.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.2;F299.27

【参考文献】