城镇化和制造业结构升级互动关系研究——基于挤入挤出效应的考察

发布时间：2018-05-18 15:41

本文选题：制造业结构 + 城镇化　；参考：《经济理论与经济管理》2017年05期

【摘要】：城镇化与制造业结构升级存在产业关联和资源配置竞争。协调推进城镇化和制造业结构升级,迫切需要识别两者的互动关系。不同于以往的研究思路,本文在对房地产投资、高技术产业投资进行挤入挤出理论分析的基础上,提出了城镇化与制造业产业结构的互动概念框架。基于此,本文采用联立方程实证策略,利用我国2002—2012年面板数据,运用3SLS方法展开分析。研究发现:土地偏向的城镇化进程中,房地产投资对高技术产业投资产生明显挤出效应,对传统产业产生了微弱挤入效应,城镇化对制造业升级有抑制作用;东部地区与全国整体情况一致,而中西部地区的房地产投资对传统产业投资也产生了挤出效应;以高技术投资表征的制造业结构升级微弱地促进了城镇化进程。
[Abstract]:Urbanization and structural upgrading of manufacturing industry are related to industry and competition in resource allocation. There is an urgent need to identify the interaction between urbanization and manufacturing upgrading. Different from previous research ideas, this paper puts forward the interactive conceptual framework of urbanization and manufacturing industry structure on the basis of crowding out theory analysis of real estate investment and high-tech industry investment. Based on this, this paper uses the empirical strategy of simultaneous equation, using China's 2002-2012 panel data, using the 3SLS method to carry out the analysis. It is found that in the process of land biased urbanization, real estate investment has an obvious crowding out effect on high-tech industry investment, a weak crowding effect on traditional industry, and urbanization can inhibit the upgrading of manufacturing industry. The eastern region is consistent with the whole country, and the real estate investment in the central and western regions also produces the crowding out effect on the traditional industry investment, and the upgrading of manufacturing industry structure characterized by high-tech investment weakly promotes the process of urbanization.
【作者单位】：浙江大学公共管理学院;江西师范大学江西经济发展研究院;浙江大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71403248) 浙江省自然科学基金项目(LY13G030042) 浙江省科技厅一般软科学研究项目(2016C35003)的资助
【分类号】：F299.21;F421

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