京津冀城市群多情景空间演化模拟

发布时间：2018-05-23 18:10

本文选题：京津冀城市群 + 约束性元胞自动机　；参考：《地理研究》2017年03期

【摘要】：京津冀城市群是中国经济发展三大引擎之一,随着京津冀协同战略的深入推进,其空间拓展呈现出新趋势与新动力。首先,集成约束性元胞自动机、空间聚类、Logistic回归、时间迭代等算法,构建出以地理分区、宏观预测和微观分配为核心的多情景空间演化模型。然后,利用京津冀2000-2013年及规划预测的用地、交通、城镇、生态和社会经济等数据,进行模型参数识别与模拟效果验证,并从交通引导、城镇辐射、经济发展等定量揭示城市群地域空间演化的动力机制。最后,从城镇化发展速度、生态保护格局和规划政策引导三大角度进行多情景模拟,总体呈现城镇扩展速度减缓、京津用地疏解效应明显和交通引导趋势加强等特点,且主要沿京津、京保石、京唐秦和京张四条发展轴扩展。2014-2030年新增城镇建设用地共3851 km~2,年均增长量226.5 km~2,远低于2000-2013年的339.7 km~2;其中,京津两地新增用地占比由42%下降到26%,保定和廊坊则成为未来城镇扩展的主力军,四市总增量占比达56%。
[Abstract]:Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is one of the three major engines of China's economic development. With the deepening of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cooperative strategy, its spatial expansion presents a new trend and new power. Firstly, by integrating constrained cellular automata, spatial clustering logistic regression, time iteration and other algorithms, a multi-scenario spatial evolution model with geographical partition, macro-prediction and micro-distribution as the core is constructed. Then, using the land, traffic, urban, ecological and socio-economic data from Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei from 2000 to 2013, the model parameters are identified and validated. Economic development and other quantitative reveals the dynamic mechanism of urban agglomeration regional spatial evolution. Finally, from the three angles of urbanization development speed, ecological protection pattern and planning policy guidance, multi-scenario simulation is carried out, which generally presents the characteristics of slow down of urban expansion rate, clear effect of land utilization in Beijing and Tianjin, and strengthening of traffic guidance trend, etc. And mainly along the four development axes of Beijing-Tianjin, Beijing-Baoshi, Beijing-Tang-Qin and Beijing-Zhang. In 2014-2030, the new urban construction land increased by 3851 km2, with an average annual growth of 226.5 kmm2, which is far lower than that of 339.7 km2 in 2000-2013; of which, The proportion of newly added land in Beijing and Tianjin decreased from 42% to 26. Baoding and Langfang became the main force in the future urban expansion. The total increment of the four cities accounted for the Prida 56.
【作者单位】：中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室;中国科学院大学;
【基金】：“十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAJ15B01)
【分类号】：F299.27

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