哈尔滨地铁BOT项目融资风险评估与分担研究

发布时间：2018-05-23 18:57

本文选题：哈尔滨地铁 + BOT项目　；参考：《哈尔滨工业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：哈尔滨地铁是中国正在建设的首个高寒地铁系统,在中国积极推进PPP模式背景下,采用BOT融资模式解决建设资金,该项目具有投资规模大、收益率低、回收期长、利益相关者多等特点,且所处环境处于不断变化和发展之中,尤其目前中国除香港地铁、北京地铁4号线、北京地铁机场线、上海地铁1号线等外,从路网整体看,所有城市的轨道交通网络几乎都是亏损的,与社会资本追求经济价值的目标不一致,不利于通过BOT模式吸引社会资本。在此背景下,本文以哈尔滨正在建设的地铁项目为研究对象,结合哈尔滨地铁设计与建设规划的特点,并充分考虑哈尔滨地处高寒地区,客流和营收具有季节敏感性的特点,分析哈尔滨地铁BOT项目的融资结构,对哈尔滨地铁项目的融资风险进行综合识别、准确评估和合理分担风险。本文在查阅国内外相关文献的基础上,深入分析了项目融资的背景,结合哈尔滨地铁BOT项目融资风险的特点,通过核对表法和故障树法进行风险识别,然后运用系统动力学vensim仿真分析模型对融资风险进行仿真分析;基于仿真分析的结果,建立哈尔滨地铁BOT项目融资风险的演化博弈模型,通过分析可以得到结论,在政府和社会投资机构风险分担的演化博弈过程中,社会投资机构的前景价值、博弈双方的奖惩制度以及风险损失的分担比例是影响项目融资双方策略选择的主要因素,这些因素之间相互联系。并以2号线为例介绍了该模型的实际运用方法。案例研究结果表明,本文构建的模型,能够对项目融资风险的合理分担起到一定的借鉴作用。
[Abstract]:Harbin Metro is the first alpine subway system under construction in China. Under the background of actively promoting the PPP model in China, the BOT financing model is adopted to solve the construction fund. The project has large scale of investment, low rate of return and long payback period. There are many stakeholders, and the environment is constantly changing and developing. At present, apart from Hong Kong Metro, Beijing Metro Line 4, Beijing Metro Airport Line, Shanghai Metro Line 1 and so on, China is looking at the road network as a whole. Almost all urban rail transit networks are loss-making, which is inconsistent with the goal of social capital to pursue economic value, and is not conducive to attracting social capital through the BOT model. Under this background, this paper takes the subway project under construction in Harbin as the research object, combines the characteristics of Harbin subway design and construction planning, and fully considers that Harbin is located in the high and cold area, and the passenger flow and revenue are seasonally sensitive. This paper analyzes the financing structure of Harbin subway BOT project, comprehensively identifies the financing risk of Harbin subway project, and accurately evaluates and reasonably shares the risk. On the basis of consulting relevant literature at home and abroad, this paper deeply analyzes the background of project financing, combines the characteristics of the financing risk of Harbin Metro BOT project, and identifies the risk by checking list method and fault tree method. Then the system dynamics vensim simulation analysis model is used to simulate and analyze the financing risk. Based on the results of simulation analysis, the evolution game model of Harbin subway BOT project financing risk is established, and the conclusion can be obtained through the analysis. In the evolutionary game process of risk sharing between government and social investment institutions, the foreground value of social investment institutions, the reward and punishment system of both sides of the game and the proportion of risk loss are the main factors that affect the strategic choice of both sides of project financing. These factors are interrelated. Taking Line 2 as an example, the practical application method of the model is introduced. The results of the case study show that the model constructed in this paper can play a certain reference role in the rational sharing of project financing risk.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F283;F572.6

【参考文献】