基于非均衡理论的昆明市房地产市场供求研究

发布时间：2018-05-25 23:43

本文选题：非均衡 + 房地产　；参考：《云南财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：昆明市房地产市场起步相对较晚,发展却较为迅速。十多年来,昆明市房价一路上涨,市场供求关系时常变动。时下,运用适当的理论和方法研究昆明市房地产市场供求情况具有较强的现实指导意义。非均衡理论已被广泛应用于房地产市场研究领域,该理论认为市场非均衡是一种常态,只有把经济非均衡度降到最小,才能实现资源的优化配置。从数量调节入手,有助于进一步弄清昆明市房地产市场的供求现状,在一定程度上解开房地产市场谜题。本文首先回顾了非均衡理论、房地产市场的研究动态,并简单地介绍了非均衡理论。其次,从总量、结构两个方面描述与分析了昆明市房地产市场供求发展现状,并与其他城市做了横向比较。再次,构建了昆明市房地产市场非均衡计量模型,并测算、预测和解释了昆明市房地产市场的供求非均衡度,并与其他城市所测算的非均衡度做了比较。最后,归纳本文研究结论,提出若干调控建议,指出文章研究不足。本文研究表明:近十多年来,昆明市房地产市场呈现出高增长、发展较不稳定的特点。2003年昆明市房地产市场处于严重的供不应求的非均衡状态,2004年处于极其严重的供不应求的非均衡状态,2006、2009、2011、2012、2013年处于中度非均衡状态。昆明市住宅商品房在总量上依然占据绝对优势地位,商业营业用房、办公楼市场发展迅速。近三年来,昆明市房地产去库存工作取得一定的成效,房地产市场有进一步向均衡状态发展的趋势。昆明市房地产市场需求方对价格变动的敏感程度要高于供给方,存在价格失灵现象。收入水平是影响昆明市房地产市场有效需求的重要因素。非均衡理论在昆明市房地产市场供求研究上具备一定的适用性。重庆、武汉两市房地产市场发展模式具有一定的借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:Kunming real estate market started relatively late, but more rapid development. For more than a decade, housing prices in Kunming have risen all the way, and the market supply-demand relationship has changed frequently. Nowadays, it is of practical significance to study the supply and demand of real estate market in Kunming with appropriate theories and methods. The theory of disequilibrium has been widely used in the field of real estate market research. The theory holds that market disequilibrium is a kind of normality. Only by minimizing the degree of economic disequilibrium can the optimal allocation of resources be realized. It is helpful to further understand the supply and demand situation of real estate market in Kunming and to solve the puzzle of real estate market to some extent. This paper reviews the theory of disequilibrium and the research trends of real estate market, and briefly introduces the theory of disequilibrium. Secondly, this paper describes and analyzes the present situation of supply and demand of real estate market in Kunming from two aspects of total amount and structure, and makes a horizontal comparison with other cities. Thirdly, this paper constructs a non-equilibrium measurement model of real estate market in Kunming, and calculates, predicts and explains the supply and demand disequilibrium of real estate market in Kunming, and compares it with that measured by other cities. Finally, the conclusion of this paper is summarized, and some suggestions of regulation and control are put forward, and the insufficiency of the research is pointed out. This paper shows that the real estate market of Kunming City has shown high growth in the past ten years. In 2003, the real estate market in Kunming was in a serious state of imbalance between supply and demand, in 2004 it was in a state of extremely serious imbalance of supply over supply, and in 2004, it was in a state of non-equilibrium in 2006 / 2009 / 2011 / 2012and in 2013, it was in a state of moderate non-equilibrium. Kunming residential commercial housing in the total still occupies an absolute dominant position, commercial housing, office building market rapid development. In the past three years, the real estate destocking in Kunming has achieved certain results, and the real estate market has a trend of further development to a balanced state. The demand side of Kunming real estate market is more sensitive to the price change than the supply side. Income level is an important factor affecting the effective demand of real estate market in Kunming. The theory of disequilibrium has certain applicability in the research of supply and demand of real estate market in Kunming. Chongqing, Wuhan two cities real estate market development model has certain reference significance.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23

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