限购政策取消对住房量价影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-10 15:25

本文选题：限购政策取消 + 倍差法　；参考：《华中师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：大量研究表明,在住房限购政策的调节下,房价似乎越调越涨,在房价上涨的背景下,地王频现,加上一些地方政府对土地财政的严重依赖以及大规模的推进城镇化,造城运动在不少地方如火如荼地展开,房地产供给过剩。到2014年下半年,政府的调控重点由“控房价”转变为“去库存”。从2014年9月开始,限购政策接连取消,到2016年6月,除一线城市外,46个限购城市均放松了购房限制。但是这一放松对于扭转楼市局面、促进楼市回暖是否具有一定的作用呢?其作用效果是否具有持续性或滞后性呢?本文将对此做出研究分析。本文通过考察限购政策取消对住房成交量当期及滞后期的影响,来检验政策是否可以去库存。另外,政策取消后是否会使房价大幅度上扬也是本文研究的重点,因此,本文也研究了政策取消后,房价的变化趋势。因为不同地域房地产市场具有差异性,因此在整体分析后做了分区检验,以研究政策的分区效果。本文通过选用我国2012年至2015年间62个大中城市商品住房市场的季度数据,运用倾向得分匹配倍差法研究了取消住房限购政策对住房量价的影响。研究结论有如下三点:第一,取消住房限购政策能够推动城市住房成交量上涨,对解决我国的房地产库存问题具有一定的积极作用,但其作用效果持续时间短;第二,短期内,政策对房价的影响并不明显,但在2015年第四季度,在政策的影响下房价上涨0.02%,东部城市房价更是上涨1.57%;第三,政策能够在短期内有效推动东部地区城市的住房成交量,但对库存问题更严重的中西部地区却无明显效果,造成了政策影响的“地区不均衡”及“效果不匹配”。
[Abstract]:A large number of studies have shown that, under the regulation of the housing purchase restriction policy, housing prices seem to be rising more and more. Against the background of rising house prices, land kings frequently appear, coupled with the heavy dependence of some local governments on land finance and the large-scale promotion of urbanization. City building movement in many places in full swing, real estate supply surplus. By the second half of 2014, the government's focus had shifted from "controlling house prices" to "destocking." Since September 2014, the restrictions have been scrapped, and by June 2016, 46 restricted cities, except for first-tier cities, had relaxed their restrictions on home purchases. But this relaxation to reverse the situation in the property market, to promote the property market has a certain role to warm up? Does its effect have persistence or lag? This article will make the research and analysis to this. This paper examines whether the policy can go to inventory by investigating the impact of the cancellation of the purchase restriction policy on the current and late housing turnover. In addition, whether the policy cancels will make the house price rise greatly is also the focus of this paper. Therefore, this paper also studies the change trend of the house price after the policy cancellation. Because the real estate market is different in different regions, it makes a zoning test after the whole analysis to study the effect of the policy. Based on the quarterly data of commodity housing market in 62 large and medium-sized cities from 2012 to 2015, this paper studies the effect of canceling the policy of limiting purchase of housing on the price of housing quantity by using the method of tendency score matching double difference. The conclusions of the study are as follows: first, canceling the policy of limiting the purchase of housing can promote the increase of urban housing turnover, which has a certain positive effect to solve the real estate inventory problem in China, but its effect is short; second, in the short term, The impact of the policy on house prices is not obvious, but in the fourth quarter of 2015, under the influence of the policy, house prices rose 0.02 percent, and in eastern cities, housing prices rose 1.57. Third, policies can effectively promote housing turnover in cities in the eastern region in the short term. However, there is no obvious effect on the central and western regions where the inventory problem is more serious, which results in the "regional imbalance" and "effect mismatch" affected by the policy.
【学位授予单位】：华中师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23

【参考文献】