浙江省城镇化发展与居民消费关系的实证分析

发布时间：2018-06-21 13:29

本文选题：城镇化发展 + 居民消费　；参考：《浙江财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：2008年全球金融危机大面积爆发,我国对外贸易严重受挫,内外需失衡问题再一次凸显。人们开始意识到外向型经济增长方式对国家经济发展带来的相对不稳定性。因此,着力扩大内需,从而带动国内消费市场,成为保证经济持续增长的重要手段之一。而“城镇化”近年来逐渐成为中共中央文件中出现的热点名词,受到越来越多学者的关注,而关于城市化与居民消费的关系也引起了学术界广泛思考。浙江省作为比较发达的省份之一,近年来,城镇化进程十分迅猛,城市化所带来的一系列经济效应也开始凸显出来。本文通过对浙江省城镇化发展与消费关系的深入研究,试图建立促进消费水平增长的长效机制,同时,探索城市化发展与消费增长之间是否存在显著的双向作用关系。在总结现有文献的基础上,首先对浙江省城市化发展与城乡居民消费的关系进行理论研究;其次对浙江省城镇化发展现状进行描述,采用综合指标法测算出城镇化率,接着分别对浙江省城乡居民消费水平与消费结构进行描述和比较;最后利用ELES模型分别计算出城乡居民边际消费倾向,比较城乡之间的差异。在理论分析的前提下,本文建立向量自回归模型(VAR模型),利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解技术对浙江省城市化发展与消费水平进行定量分析。最终结果显示,两者之间存在长期的双向作用关系;然后利用灰色关联理论计算出城镇化率与城乡居民消费结构的关联度,并进行比较分析。最后,结合理论分析和实证分析的结果,提出政策建议。理论分析与实证分析得出的结论主要有:一、综合指标下的城镇化率低于单一指标下的城镇化率,浙江省城镇化水平存在虚高现象;二、浙江省城乡居民在消费上的差距还是比较明显的,而图表也显示,这两方面的差距还在进一步扩大;三、浙江省城市化发展与居民消费之间是相互促进的关系,并且从长期来看,农村居民的消费对城市化发展的作用力度更加持久;四、城乡居民消费虽然存在一定的差距,但居民整体消费层次都在提高,城镇居民消费领域偏向于文教娱乐等发展型和享乐型消费,而农村居民也在满足基本物质需要后,开始转向医保等发展型消费。论文的创新点主要表现在三个方面:一是文章利用综合指标法对城市化率进行重新计算,更加确切地显示了浙江省城市化水平发展现状;二是实证分析了城市化发展与居民消费水平之间的长期双向互动关系;三是目前浙江省有关这方面研究的文献比较少,本文在一定程度上是对该领域文献的一个补充。
[Abstract]:In 2008, the global financial crisis broke out in a large area, the foreign trade of our country was seriously frustrated, and the problem of imbalance between internal and external needs was highlighted again. People begin to realize the relative instability brought by the export-oriented economic growth mode to the national economic development. Therefore, efforts to expand domestic demand, thus driving the domestic consumer market, as an important means to ensure sustained economic growth. In recent years, "urbanization" has gradually become a hot term in the document of the CPC Central Committee, which has attracted more and more scholars' attention, and the relationship between urbanization and resident consumption has also aroused extensive consideration in academic circles. As one of the more developed provinces, in recent years, the process of urbanization is very rapid, and a series of economic effects brought by urbanization are also beginning to highlight. Based on the in-depth study of the relationship between urbanization and consumption in Zhejiang Province, this paper attempts to establish a long-term mechanism to promote the growth of consumption level, and at the same time, to explore whether there is a significant bidirectional relationship between urbanization and consumption growth. On the basis of summarizing the existing literature, this paper firstly studies the relationship between the urbanization development of Zhejiang Province and the consumption of urban and rural residents, and then describes the present situation of urbanization in Zhejiang Province, and calculates the urbanization rate by using the comprehensive index method. Then the consumption level and consumption structure of urban and rural residents in Zhejiang Province are described and compared. Finally, the marginal consumption tendency of urban and rural residents is calculated by using Eles model, and the differences between urban and rural areas are compared. On the premise of theoretical analysis, the vector autoregressive model and VAR model are established in this paper. The impulse response function and variance decomposition technique are used to quantitatively analyze the urbanization development and consumption level in Zhejiang Province. The final results show that there is a long-term bidirectional relationship between the two, and then the grey correlation theory is used to calculate the correlation between the urbanization rate and the consumption structure of urban and rural residents, and to carry out a comparative analysis. Finally, combined with the results of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, policy recommendations are put forward. The conclusions of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis are as follows: first, the urbanization rate under the comprehensive index is lower than the urbanization rate under the single index, and the urbanization level in Zhejiang Province has the phenomenon of false high; second, The gap in consumption between urban and rural residents in Zhejiang Province is still quite obvious, and the chart also shows that the gap between the two areas is still widening. Third, the relationship between the urbanization development of Zhejiang Province and residents' consumption is mutually reinforcing. And in the long run, the effect of rural residents' consumption on the development of urbanization is more sustained. Fourthly, although there is a certain gap between urban and rural residents' consumption, the overall consumption level of residents is improving. Urban residents tend to develop and enjoy consumption in the field of culture, education and entertainment, while rural residents turn to development consumption such as medical insurance after meeting the basic material needs. The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in three aspects: first, the paper recalculates the urbanization rate by using the comprehensive index method, which shows the present situation of urbanization level in Zhejiang Province more accurately; The second is the empirical analysis of the long-term two-way interaction between the development of urbanization and the level of residents' consumption. Third, there are few literatures on this area in Zhejiang Province, this paper is a supplement to the literature in this field to some extent.
【学位授予单位】：浙江财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.27;F126.1

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